Is the CLARITY Act's Passage Out of Reach? Probability Plummets to 43%, "Crypto Regulation Expectations Have Collapsed"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), XRP (XRP), United States/AI-generated image ©

As expectations for the passage of the US cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, sharply declined, the market once again began to reflect the risk of regulatory uncertainty.

According to crypto-specialized media Finbold on April 23 (local time), the probability of the CLARITY Act passing by 2026 in the decentralized prediction market Myriad plummeted by 21 percentage points from 64% to 43% in just five days. Notably, it also dropped by approximately 22% in the last 24 hours, indicating a rapid cooling of market expectations.

This decline marks the lowest level in several months. The probability of the bill's passage had fallen to 40% in the third week of January 2026, then surged to 82% on February 20, but subsequently fluctuated around 60% before collapsing sharply this week. The market seems to have concluded that the momentum for the bill's advancement has weakened.

The biggest reason is the delay in the Senate schedule. Senator Thom Tillis, who is leading the bill's coordination, announced that the markup (bill deliberation), originally scheduled for April, would be postponed. He instead mentioned the possibility of the schedule being pushed back to mid-May, explaining that further discussion is needed on issues within the bill, particularly regarding stablecoin revenue structures.

Such schedule delays significantly shook market expectations. With the August Senate recess approaching, the sentiment spread that the likelihood of the bill reaching President Donald Trump's signature by year-end has decreased. The media analyzed that, as a result, traders are reflecting lower short-term chances of the bill's passage.

Ultimately, the CLARITY Act was considered a key catalyst for the overall cryptocurrency market, but increasing schedule uncertainty has once again highlighted the disparity between expectations and reality. The market anticipates that the regulatory environment and the direction of institutional capital flows will largely depend on whether the deliberation proceeds in May.

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