3 Factors to Trigger a Cryptocurrency Bull Market in May

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), war, geopolitical crisis/ChatGPT generated image ©

After Bitcoin's sharp drop, the frozen market is showing signs of a rebound in May, leading to observations that a strong bull market could reopen if certain conditions are met.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet Watcher.Guru on April 23 (local time), the cryptocurrency market, which has been stagnant for the past few months, is likely to enter a full-fledged bull phase in May 2026 if three factors align: easing geopolitical tensions, expectations of interest rate cuts, and securing regulatory clarity. Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen from its peak of $126,080 in October 2025 to around $62,000 in February 2026, significantly dampening investor sentiment.

The first variable is the easing of tensions between the United States and Iran. Analysis suggests that if the possibility of nuclear negotiations between the two countries emerges and the risk of an all-out conflict decreases, investors' risk aversion sentiment could quickly ease. The resolution of war risks positively impacts global assets across the board, and the cryptocurrency market can also experience upward pressure due to improved investor sentiment.

The second is the expectation of interest rate cuts. President Donald Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, and he is scheduled to take office in May. Unlike the incumbent Chairman Jerome Powell, who maintained a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, Warsh is highly likely to accept calls for rate cuts. Interest rate cuts mean an expansion of liquidity, which is considered a key variable that can facilitate capital inflow into the cryptocurrency market, a risky asset.

The third is the passage of the CLARITY Act, a cryptocurrency market structure bill in the United States. If regulatory uncertainty is resolved, institutional and individual investor participation is likely to expand, which could lead to overall market supply and demand improvement. A clear regulatory environment is analyzed as a factor that can increase the credibility of the cryptocurrency industry and provide additional upward momentum.

However, even if an upward scenario is likely, the possibility of increased volatility remains. It is also pointed out that investors' risk appetite has not fully recovered, and market rebound could be limited if tensions in the Middle East escalate again. Ultimately, the May bull market depends on the speed at which these expected factors materialize.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*