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▲ Upbit, Bitcoin, XRP ©
With the easing of geopolitical risks from the Middle East, the New York stock market showed strength, and the domestic virtual asset market is also experiencing a relief rally. News of the start of ceasefire negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah stimulated investors' preference for risk assets, leading major coins, including the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC), to successfully turn upward on Upbit.
According to the market conditions of Upbit, the largest domestic virtual asset exchange, as of 6:24 AM on the 10th, Bitcoin rebounded from yesterday's weakness, trading at 107,025,000 KRW, up 1.10% from the previous day. Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest by market capitalization, recorded 3,277,000 KRW, up 0.46%, while XRP (Ripple) and Solana (SOL) also settled at 2,005 KRW and 125,000 KRW, respectively, rising by 0.25% and 1.63%. Amidst the overall upward trend, the Upbit Market Index (UBMI) rose by 0.80% to 11,040.03, and the Altcoin Index (UBAI) rose by 0.67% to 2,992.59, signaling a recovery in investor sentiment.
However, despite the price rebound, trading volume, which indicates the market's actual buying enthusiasm, remains significantly contracted. According to data from the global market aggregator CoinGecko, Upbit's total 24-hour trading volume at the same time sharply decreased by 37.1% compared to the previous day, revealing strong wait-and-see sentiment. Amidst the overall decrease in trading activity, a fragmented rotational trading environment continues, with speculative supply and demand concentrated only on a few individual altcoins, such as MVL, which achieved a 100% weekly increase, and Celestia (TIA), which rose by 86.87%.
The decisive factor behind the cryptocurrency market's bullish turn today was the Middle East peace sentiment that buoyed the New York stock market overnight. News emerged that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had continued attacks even after the two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, abruptly ordered his cabinet to begin ceasefire negotiations with Lebanon. As the fear of extreme escalation seemingly subsided, strong buying sentiment flowed into the overall risk asset market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the New York Stock Exchange closing up 0.58% and the Nasdaq Composite Index up 0.83%.
However, there are also strong warnings against premature optimism. This is because Prime Minister Netanyahu, in an internal statement to residents of the country's north, still did not back down from his strong intention to strike Hezbollah, leaving doubts about the sincerity of the ceasefire. Furthermore, macroeconomic indicators are mixed, with the U.S. February core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising 0.4% month-over-month, reconfirming persistent inflation, while fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth sharply declined to 0.5%, complicating the Federal Reserve's calculations.
Market experts analyze that while Bitcoin has recovered the 107 million KRW level, easing some downward pressure, a rise not supported by trading volume has clear limitations. The future direction of the virtual asset market's major upward trend is expected to largely depend on the actual progress of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon and the outcome of the first peace talks between the U.S. and Iran scheduled for the 11th. For the time being, as the market could experience a rollercoaster ride based on geopolitical news headlines, it is necessary to maintain a conservative approach while closely monitoring Upbit's trading volume trends.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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