Evaporated from the exchange...Why isn't XRP's price soaring?

▲ XRP

Over $11 billion worth of XRP has exited the Binance exchange, intensifying an unprecedented supply shortage, yet leveraged investments, which typically drive market price increases, remain stagnant.

Cryptocurrency specialized media, The Crypto Basic, reported on April 9th (local time) that the cumulative net outflow of XRP on Binance reached $11.23 billion, signaling the highest level of supply crunch ever. This report, citing data from a virtual asset analytics platform, suggests that while exchange balances continue to decrease, speculative demand to absorb this supply has not yet recovered. Cumulative net outflow is an indicator that investors have moved assets stored on exchanges to personal wallets or long-term custody services, typically meaning that market selling pressure has decreased.

Tracking XRP Ledger-based asset flows reveals that Binance's XRP holdings have been on a downward trend for several months, reaching their lowest level since 2024. This is interpreted as a result of institutional investors aggressively absorbing circulating supply in the market following the approval of XRP spot ETFs. While a decrease in exchange supply can create an environment where prices react sensitively to even small buying pressure, the current market continues to trade sideways despite the potential for such a supply shock.

The biggest reason cited is the lack of leverage in the futures market. In past bull markets, XRP's open interest sometimes exceeded $10 billion, but it is currently stagnant around $2.4 billion, which is about 20% of that level. Without aggressive position building using leverage, a bottleneck is occurring where the robust supply and demand structure of the spot market cannot lead to a price surge. Individual investor sentiment also remains below neutral, indicating a lack of market vitality.

On the contrary, institutional investor participation is expanding. Recently, a steady inflow of funds through XRP spot ETFs from major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity has been observed, supporting the idea that a significant portion of the $11.23 billion that exited exchanges is institutional long-term holdings. Experts diagnose that the true price breakout period for XRP will be when leveraged investment fully resumes and open interest surpasses the $4 billion mark.

The XRP market is currently in an unusual phase where supply has decreased, and the quality of demand has improved, but there is a lack of speculative energy to create explosive volatility. With supply shortage indicators reaching new highs in 2026, there are warnings that the price could surge uncontrollably if external positive news emerges in the future. Investors are monitoring whether Binance's net inflow turns positive and the trend of trading volume in the futures market, searching for the starting point of the next rally.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*