Bitcoin (BTC), active addresses lowest since 2018... hitting $15,000 bottom and starting a reversal?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Three on-chain signals indicating the entry into a long-term accumulation phase have been simultaneously detected in the Bitcoin (Bitcoin, BTC) market.

According to crypto media outlet BeInCrypto on April 8 (local time), Bitcoin's active address momentum fell to -0.2, its lowest level since 2018. A CryptoQuant analyst diagnosed that short-term speculative demand is leaving the market, and long-term holders are absorbing the supply. He explained, “Low volatility and reduced speculative activity create a good environment for institutions and whales to accumulate large volumes without sharp price fluctuations.”

The proportion of capital in a state of loss has also reached levels similar to past major bottoms. Rand Group analyzed that in all three past instances where 80% to 90% of Bitcoin capital was in a state of loss, the optimal buying zone in years was formed. They argue that the same conditions are appearing now.

Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, stated that the 720-day Tactical Bullish/Bearish Sentiment Index (TBBI) has entered an extremely bearish zone. This indicator tends to fall when retail investors' fatigue reaches its peak and market outlook turns negative. In the past, this coincided with the point when whales began to absorb market supply.

Wedson did not rule out the possibility of further declines. He said, “There is still room for decline, but the additional downside is likely to become increasingly limited. A final plunge to $15,000, triggering ultimate fear, is possible, but structurally, we are in the late stages of the fear phase.” These three indicators suggest that the exit of speculative demand, increased losses, and extreme bearish sentiment are creating an environment for long-term accumulation. However, the timing of a trend reversal has not been confirmed.

[Key Summary of the Article]

-Bitcoin's active address momentum fell to -0.2, recording its lowest level since 2018.

-80% to 90% of Bitcoin capital is in a state of loss, creating conditions similar to past major buying zones.

-The 720-day Tactical Bullish/Bearish Sentiment Index has entered an extremely bearish zone, but the possibility of a final sharp decline remains.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*