US Crypto Bill's Passage Probability Drops to 23%...Bitwise: "Market Growth Cannot Be Halted"

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The likelihood of the US cryptocurrency market structure bill being enacted by 2026 has plummeted to 23%. Bitwise emphasized that even if the bill is stalled, the growth of the cryptocurrency industry will not be halted.

According to Cointelegraph on August 5 (local time), Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that if the bill fails to pass this week, it could effectively enter a "walking dead state." Hougan said, "Washington has always been slow to significant technological changes, but it rarely led to problems as big as feared."

The US Senate must advance the bill by August 5, before its summer recess. If it fails to pass this week, discussions could be pushed to next year, compounded by the political schedule ahead of the November midterm elections. Galaxy Research lowered the bill's chance of passing by 2026 to 30% in July. The probability of its enactment, as reflected by Polymarket, also dropped from 82% in February to 23%.

Greg Cipolaro, Head of Global Research at NYDIG, assessed that while the latest bill is more complete than previous versions, there is no realistic path to secure the 60 votes needed for Senate passage. There are also predictions that if the White House and Congress fail to make progress on bipartisan ethics agreements, illicit finance, and stablecoin compensation issues, Democrats could block a cloture vote on the bill.

Hougan also mentioned the possibility of the bill being revived during congressional sessions in September or December. He said, "Congress bundles several bills into one omnibus bill at the end of the year," suggesting that the US cryptocurrency market structure bill could be handled in the same way.

If the bill does not pass this year, the industry will rely on the joint interpretation announced in March by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This interpretation classifies Bitcoin (BTC) and some assets as digital commodities. Paul Atkins, former SEC Commissioner, stated that he is ready to establish relevant rules. Hougan said, "Cryptocurrency is already a pillar of the global financial foundation and has secured the momentum to reshape finance for decades to come."

[Article Key Summary]

-The likelihood of the US cryptocurrency market structure bill being enacted by 2026 has plummeted from 82% in February to 23%.

-With the uncertainty of securing the 60 votes needed in the Senate, the bill is increasingly likely to be stalled for a long time.

-Bitwise believes that even if the bill fails, the cryptocurrency industry's growth will continue based on the joint interpretation by regulatory agencies.

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