to leave a comment.
▲ Bitcoin (BTC)
As Bitcoin (BTC) recovers to $64,000, the expansion of US manufacturing, exhaustion of selling pressure, and regulatory expectations are fueling speculation about a cryptocurrency rebound in August.
On August 4 (local time), the cryptocurrency YouTube channel Altcoin Daily stated in an uploaded video that the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July recorded 55.6, exceeding market expectations of 54. The index surpassed 52 for seven consecutive months, indicating the fastest manufacturing expansion in four years. The video explained that stocks and cryptocurrencies had risen for several months after the Manufacturing PMI consistently stayed above 52 in January 2017 and September 2020.
Analysis suggests that manufacturing recovery can boost sales and employment not only for large manufacturers but also for component suppliers, logistics companies, and small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby increasing funds flowing into risky assets. Altcoin Daily argued that Bitcoin rose from $15,000 to $126,000 even during the manufacturing contraction period between 2022 and 2025, suggesting that economic expansion could act as an additional catalyst. However, this forecast is the channel's market interpretation based on past cases.
The expansion of institutional tokenization businesses was also presented as a bullish factor. According to the video, BlackRock (BLK) applied to launch a Solana (SOL)-based tokenized fund, and two tokenized money market funds were introduced on Ethereum (ETH). These two products can be used as eligible reserve assets for US stablecoin issuers after the passage of the stablecoin regulation bill GENIUS. Altcoin Daily evaluated the actions of large financial companies as a move considering the passage of the US cryptocurrency market structure bill.
Within the market, loss-selling by short-term holders and decreased volatility were cited as bottom signals. The video claimed that one of the strongest loss-selling events in the past 30 days occurred in early August, and that holdings from buyers at peak prices are moving to long-term holders. The fact that Bitcoin's realized volatility over the past 30 days has fallen below that of tech stocks was also presented as an indicator supporting the possibility of an uptrend. However, the video did not disclose specific institutions or data figures used to calculate the volume of loss-selling or exchange withdrawals.
A key policy variable is the US cryptocurrency market structure bill. At the time of filming, three days remained until the US Senate's recess deadline for processing, and John Thune, the US Senate Majority Whip, reaffirmed the plan to vote by August 7. US Senator John Husted stated, "Currently, there are no rules or ethical standards to govern cryptocurrencies," adding, "The United States must lead in regulation and consumer protection." The prediction market reflected approximately a 30% chance of the bill passing by 2026, and the policy reporter featured in the video estimated the actual probability to be higher than 30%.
[Article Key Summary]
-The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index recorded 55.6, continuing its expansion for seven consecutive months.
-Altcoin Daily presented loss-selling, low volatility, and increased exchange withdrawals as signals for Bitcoin's rebound.
-The US cryptocurrency market structure bill's chance of passing by 2026 was estimated at approximately 30%, but the processing schedule remains uncertain.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
Newsletter
Get key news delivered to your email every morning
to leave a comment.