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▲ SpaceX (SPCX), Stock Decline/AI Generated Image ©
SpaceX significantly exceeded Wall Street's expectations in its first earnings report after listing, but its stock price fell in after-hours trading, strengthening the bearish sentiment. It was analyzed that the $15.8 billion investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and the large-scale lockup expiration overshadowed the strong performance.
According to crypto media Watcher.Guru on August 5 (local time), SpaceX's Q2 revenue was $7.8 billion, surpassing market expectations of $6.81 billion. Adjusted EBITDA also significantly exceeded the estimated $2 billion, reaching $3.5 billion. Revenue increased by $3.1 billion from $4.7 billion in Q1.
Starlink subscribers surpassed 12 million, and the Adjusted EBITDA for the connected business was recorded at $2.6 billion, higher than the market's estimated $2.41 billion. However, spending in the artificial intelligence sector more than doubled from $7.7 billion in Q1 to $15.8 billion in Q2. Although the operating loss in the AI sector was $1.26 billion, less than the estimated $2.39 billion, total capital expenditures (CAPEX) reached $18.37 billion, raising concerns about investment sustainability.
The biggest short-term variable is the lockup expiration scheduled for August 6. Cory Johnson of Epistrophy Capital analyzed that hundreds of millions of insider-held shares would become eligible for sale, which is approximately three times the current number of tradable shares. With this expiration, up to 20% of total shares could enter the market, leading investors to view potential selling pressure as a greater risk than the Q2 earnings.
The long-term growth plan remains aggressive. SpaceX, in collaboration with Nvidia, plans to develop the Starmind AI-1 orbital payload equipped with Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs, and aims to increase satellite computing capacity to 250 kilowatts. Elon Musk mentioned the possibility of Starlink supplying most of the world's internet in the long run and stated that if there are no issues with mission data, they would attempt to recover the spacecraft using the launch tower in the next flight.
Goldman Sachs, the lead underwriter for the IPO, projected SpaceX's annualized revenue to increase from approximately $31 billion currently to $846 billion within five years. However, with the lockup expiration coinciding with increased AI spending, short-term stock price volatility is likely to continue. The media assessed that overwhelming earnings improvements alone are insufficient to resolve the bearish arguments accumulated since June.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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