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▲ Solana (SOL)/AI Generated Image ©
Solana (SOL) is stuck around the $73 mark, with on-chain growth and price diverging sharply, despite record-high deposits on its network. With all four major exponential moving averages declining above the price, coupled with leverage liquidations and significant unrealized losses on corporate holdings, the recovery to $80 has emerged as a crucial factor for a trend reversal.
According to the investment media TradingNews on August 3 (local time), Solana traded between $72.27 and $74.51 on Monday before settling around $73.39. Its market capitalization was recorded at $43.167 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $1.216 billion. The current price is 63.3% lower than its October 2025 peak of approximately $200, but 20.3% higher than the 31-month low of $61 recorded last June.
On the first trading day of August, long positions worth over $16 million were liquidated, while short position liquidations amounted to only about $187,000. The scale of long liquidations was 85 times that of shorts, indicating a massive deleveraging of bullish bets. Bitfinex whales also reportedly reduced their long positions. Although the leverage burden has decreased, Solana spot ETF fund flows and spot demand remain sluggish, making it uncertain whether actual buying interest will follow.
Losses incurred by companies accumulating Solana are also a concern. Forward Industries invested approximately $1.59 billion, acquiring 6.83 million SOL at an average price of $232 since September 2025, but their current value has dropped to about $458.6 million. Unrealized losses exceed $1.3 billion, with a loss rate of over 71%. The company moved 455,784 SOL to Coinbase Prime last June. The media pointed out that the company's holdings amount to about 1.2% of the circulating supply, potentially acting as a supply overhang.
In contrast, network metrics remained robust. While the total value locked (TVL) in USD terms decreased by approximately 56% from its peak of over $11.5 billion in August 2025 to $5.5 billion in May 2026, the TVL in Solana terms surpassed 80 million SOL, reaching an all-time high. This indicates that while the USD value decreased due to price drops, users actually deposited more assets into decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols. Application revenue in 2025 reached $2.39 billion, and daily decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume exceeded $2 billion in the first quarter of this year. The introduction of Alpenglow and Firedancer were also cited as factors improving network performance.
Technically, Solana is trading below its 20-day exponential moving average of $75.81, 50-day EMA of $76.27, 100-day EMA of $79.72, and 200-day EMA of $92.45. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43.05 daily and approximately 38 weekly, which is not oversold, but buying momentum is not strong either. The media suggested a basic price range of $70-$80 for August. If $72.41 is lost, the price could fall to $70, then to the June low of $61. For a rebound, it needs to reclaim the moving average confluence zone of $76.30-$76.50, break above $79.89, and close trading above $80 on a weekly basis.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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