Ripple (XRP), Plunges 42% Despite $1.5 Billion ETF Inflow… 'Sell Wall' Piles Up at $1.48

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XRP (Ripple) has plummeted 42% this year despite $1.5 billion flowing into US spot ETFs, demonstrating that institutional demand alone struggles to overcome supply pressure. The recurring monthly escrow releases and a large break-even sell wall formed at $1.48 have been identified as key factors hindering price recovery.

According to investment specialized media TradingNews on August 3 (local time), XRP traded around $1.07 on Monday, down 1% over 24 hours, 3.63% over the week, and 5.78% over the past month. This is about 70% lower than its all-time high of $3.65703 recorded on July 18, 2025. Since July last year, the price has consistently set lower highs and lower lows within a downward channel, encountering resistance at $2.69 in October 2025, $2.41 in January 2026, and $1.54 in May.

The seven US-listed XRP spot ETFs have seen a net inflow of $1.5 billion since their launch, with funds holding 978.9 million tokens. However, as of July 29, the net assets were only $988.7 million, representing a decrease of approximately $500 million from the initial investment. The proportion of ETF net assets to the total market capitalization is also 1.48%, significantly lower than the 6.08% for Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETFs. Net inflows in July were approximately $12.3 million, a sharp drop from $131 million in May and $59 million in June, but $12.68 million flowed in during the last two days of the month, continuing net inflows for three consecutive weeks.

Supply pressure outweighs the absorption capacity of ETFs. Ripple typically releases up to 1 billion tokens from escrow each month, then re-locks about 700 million, circulating 200-300 million for operational, ecosystem, and liquidity purposes. The current circulating supply is approximately 62.53 billion tokens, with about 32 billion remaining in escrow. Compared to the ETFs' average monthly absorption of about 122 million tokens over the past eight months, the net escrow supply is more than double. Furthermore, about 60% of the total circulating supply is at a loss with an average purchase price of $1.48, making it highly likely that break-even selling will occur whenever the price rebounds.

The growth of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) has also not led to a price increase. Daily transaction volume reached 3 million in March 2026, and the tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA) exceeded $474 million. Ripple also secured authorization under Europe's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation and conditional approval from a US national trust bank, investing approximately $4 billion in corporate acquisitions. However, the media explained that due to XRP's structural characteristic of completing payments within seconds, eliminating the need for transaction participants to hold it long-term, increased network usage has not translated into sustained token demand. The Clarity Act, a US cryptocurrency market structure bill, was also excluded from the Senate schedule on August 3, weakening expectations for regulatory improvement.

Technically, the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day exponential moving averages are formed between $1.0990 and $1.2188, exerting downward pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 47.64, indicating weakening downward pressure, but a shift to buying momentum has not been confirmed. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has only approached a potential crossover but has not generated a bullish signal. The media suggested a basic price range of $1 to $1.25 for August. If $1.04 breaks, it could fall to $1, then to $0.90-$0.95. For a rebound, it needs to recover $1.093, then successively break through the moving average cluster zone of $1.10-$1.14 and the downtrend line of $1.21.

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