Ethereum, 41 Million Locked, Still Sideways at $1,860... 'Three Conditions' to Awaken Price

▲ Ethereum (ETH) ©Godasol

Ethereum (ETH) remains at the $1,860 level despite supply dominance, with 33.6% of its total supply staked and funds flowing into Ethereum spot ETFs. While the decrease in circulating supply and the rotation of institutional funds are clear, actual buying pressure to move the price is lacking due to macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainties.

According to TradingNews, an investment specialized media outlet, on August 3 (local time), Ethereum started at $1,883.15 on Monday, rising 2.2% but falling to $1,840.70 in about three hours. It subsequently traded between $1,857.80 and $1,867.23, having dropped 3.55% over the past week. Compared to its all-time high of $4,953.73 recorded in August 2025, the current price is 62.5% lower. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral level of 51, indicating that neither buying nor selling has a clear advantage.

A differentiation from Bitcoin (BTC) was observed in fund flows. In the week leading up to July 28, Ethereum spot ETFs saw an inflow of 37,959 ETH, approximately $71.17 million, while Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced an outflow of 3,170 BTC, approximately $200.23 million. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows for three consecutive weeks, and the ETH/BTC ratio, which shows the relative price of ETH and Bitcoin, also rose by more than 10% in July. However, the media analyzed that this ratio must exceed 0.035 on a weekly basis to be confirmed as a full-scale fund movement, not just a temporary rebound.

The supply structure has also improved. Approximately 900,000 validators are staking 41 million ETH, which accounts for 33.6% of the total circulating supply. While the amount of ETH waiting for validator withdrawals has decreased to '0', the amount waiting for new entries reached 2.48 million. Exchange holdings have also decreased to an all-time low of approximately 14.9 million. However, the annual staking reward rate is only about 2.78%, making its investment appeal limited compared to US Treasury yields, which are above 4%.

Unlike the decrease in supply, the burning mechanism has weakened. Ethereum issues approximately 1,700 ETH per day as validator rewards, but the burn amount is only 50-70 ETH, leading to an annual supply increase rate of about 0.23%. The upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade aims to reduce Layer 1 fees by approximately 78.6% and expand processing capacity to up to 10,000 transactions. While this is positive for users, it is a double-edged change for holders, as transaction volume must significantly increase to offset the reduction in fee burning.

Technically, $1,807 is the short-term support level, and if this price is lost, there is a possibility of a drop to $1,717 and $1,500, near the 2026 low. Conversely, if $2,029 is broken and the weekly close is above $2,055, the next target is $2,312. The media suggested a basic price range of $1,717-$2,055 for August. For an upward scenario to materialize, all three conditions must be met: continued net inflows into Ethereum spot ETFs, a breakthrough of the 0.035 ETH/BTC ratio, and the introduction of the Clarity Act, a US cryptocurrency market structure bill, to the Senate.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*