XRP (Ripple), 1 Billion Unlocked vs. ETF Buying Spree... Who Will Win the Defense of the $1.066 Support Line?

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XRP is being tested to defend the $1.066 support line amidst pressure from a 1 billion escrow release and institutional ETF buying.

According to crypto media outlet FX Leaders on August 3 (local time), Ripple released its August escrow volume as scheduled. Ripple can release up to 1 billion XRP on the first day of each month, but typically returns about 700 million XRP to escrow. The actual circulating supply added is approximately 200-300 million XRP, which is used for operations, ecosystem support, and liquidity provision.

As of early August, approximately 62.5 billion XRP has been released into the market, with about 32 billion XRP remaining in escrow. On the other hand, US spot XRP ETFs collectively hold just under 1 billion XRP. Their assets under management also approach $1 billion, creating a structure where institutional demand absorbs regular increases in supply. XRP balances on centralized exchanges are also at their lowest level in approximately three years, reducing the amount available for immediate sale.

The short-term technical trend still leans bearish. XRP fell below the main uptrend line on the 4-hour chart, placing it below the 50-period moving average of $1.079 and the 100-period moving average of $1.101. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 47, which is not yet in the oversold zone, but it's also difficult to say that buying pressure has regained control.

The key support level is $1.066. Analysis suggests that if the daily closing price falls below this level, it could drop to the next support levels of $1.044 and $1.027. Conversely, a rebound towards $1.116 and $1.135 is possible only if it recovers $1.079 and closes above $1.093. The diagnosis is that a short-term bearish trend will persist as long as XRP remains below $1.079.

This week, a series of US economic reports will be released, including the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), private employment, Services PMI, weekly jobless claims, and the non-farm payroll report. The legislative schedule for the US cryptocurrency market structure bill is also a market variable. The outlet analyzed that if employment indicators are weak, expectations for policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could increase, positively impacting crypto investor sentiment, including XRP.

[Article Key Summary]

-Ripple releases up to 1 billion XRP but re-locks about 700 million XRP, limiting the actual supply increase to 200-300 million XRP.

-US spot XRP ETFs have secured close to 1 billion XRP and approximately $1 billion in assets under management.

-XRP must hold $1.066, and breaking above $1.093 is required for short-term dominance to shift to buyers.

*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. No responsibility is taken for investment losses based on this information. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*