Bitcoin, fair value is $134,000..."It will surge when liquidity is released again"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a significant gap between its model-based fair value of $134,000 and its actual price around $75,000, leading to an analysis that risk capital flowing into tech stocks is holding back the cryptocurrency market.

According to Benzinga on May 27 (local time), Porter Stansberry, founder of Stansberry Research, valued Bitcoin's fair price at $134,000 on Anthony Pompliano's podcast. He attributed Bitcoin's stagnation around $75,000 to the rapid shift of risk capital into Nvidia and memory semiconductor stocks. Hedge fund allocations also concentrated on tech stocks, leaving Bitcoin relatively neglected, he explained.

Stansberry explained that his Bitcoin price model is directly linked to monetary indicators such as bank system liquidity and M2. He argued that while gold moves with global credit growth, Bitcoin reacts more quickly to monetary supply expansion. He noted that the U.S. Federal Reserve resumed bond purchases in December and monetary supply indicators began to expand again, suggesting that the conditions for Bitcoin's rise are quietly being met. Stansberry stated, "Today's Bitcoin price disparity is the largest I've seen in my model," and called it "the best Bitcoin opportunity I've seen in a decade."

He also maintained a bullish outlook for gold. Stansberry's gold model points to $8,000 per ounce by 2030, based on existing global credit. However, he assessed that while gold trades above his model's range of $3,500 to $4,000, Bitcoin is much lower than its fair value, making it more attractive for entry.

Stansberry's big picture is aligned with the possibility of financial restructuring in 2029. He cited the depletion of Social Security trust funds, the weakening purchasing power of the dollar, and fiscal deficits ranging from 6% to 7% of GDP even in full employment conditions. In such an environment, scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold become key tools to avoid a decline in purchasing power, he explained.

Stansberry believes that Bitcoin reacts more sensitively to monetary intervention than gold. He cited that Bitcoin surged immediately at the COVID-19 low point, while gold reacted only 18 months after the credit system began functioning again. He diagnosed that while Bitcoin falls faster when liquidity shrinks, it also recovers faster when liquidity expands, and that this transition is beginning now.

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