35% Crash Signal Appears Again...Bitcoin Whale 'Counter-Bets' in Fear Zone

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Whale / AI Generated Image

Bitcoin (BTC) has once again shown technical warning signals similar to those just before its 35% plunge in January this year. However, a large wallet has made a counter-bet, withdrawing 66.24 million dollars worth of Bitcoin from an exchange.

According to BeInCrypto on May 27 (local time), Bitcoin fell below all four key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the daily chart. Bitcoin traded below the 20-day EMA of $77,428, the 50-day EMA of $76,677, the 100-day EMA of $76,812, and the 200-day EMA of $81,367. BeInCrypto stated that this pattern is similar to the structure observed before the 35.02% plunge in January.

At the same time, on-chain tracking account Onchain Lens revealed that a wallet withdrew 873.29 BTC from OKX. This amount is valued at $66.24 million. This wallet currently holds 881 BTC, with a total value estimated at approximately $66.73 million. Although technical signals point to bearish sentiment, the withdrawal from the exchange by a large wallet suggests that at least some whales see the current levels as a buying opportunity.

BeInCrypto analyzed that Bitcoin has completely broken out of the EMA cluster four times since 2026. The first instance was at the end of January. Bitcoin closed below all EMAs and then plunged by 35.02% over two weeks. In contrast, during the EMA breakout on March 26, the decline stopped at 7.36%, and on May 22, after a 3.32% correction, it returned to the EMA range. The last two instances were described as closer to short corrections than collapses.

The key difference was the movement of long-term holders. According to Glassnode's Long-Term Holder Net Position Change indicator, long-term holders were in a strong net-selling state from late 2025 until the January 2026 crash. At that time, the distribution deepened to approximately -200,000 BTC at its peak. However, since early March 2026, the trend for long-term holders has shifted to net accumulation, with daily inflows often exceeding 100,000 BTC. BeInCrypto pointed out that the current EMA breakout is still occurring during a period of net accumulation by long-term holders, which is a decisive difference from January.

Price scenarios for different ranges were also presented. Bitcoin has already fallen about 2% after breaking out of the EMA cluster. If this trend develops similarly to the May 22 case, the decline could stop around $73,873, which is near the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level of the rally from late March to mid-May. If buying pressure fails to hold this level and the situation becomes closer to the March 26 case, the next confirmation point is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level at $71,773. Conversely, for a recovery, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $75,973 as a daily close, and then break above $78,572. A clear move above $82,772 would see Bitcoin recover all moving averages and return to its existing upward trend. If the net position of long-term holders turns negative again, a January-style crash comparison revives, opening a deeper correction path into the mid-$60,000 range.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*