Will it change if only BlackRock enters? XRP Spot ETF Market Reversal Signal?

▲ BlackRock, XRP (Ripple) ©

With expectations of institutional capital inflow and the BlackRock variable overlapping, the XRP (Ripple) spot ETF market is once again drawing attention. However, an analysis suggests that the market remains in a period of extreme volatility due to ongoing Middle East risks and capital outflow pressures.

According to investment specialized media TradingNews on May 26 (local time), a total of seven XRP spot ETF products are currently listed on the U.S. market, with assets under management (AUM) exceeding $1.2 billion. More than 840 million XRP are held in institutional custody accounts, with Coinbase Prime and BitGo known as the main custodians.

The media reported that Rex-Osprey's XRPR is trading at $11.06, and Bitwise's XRP product XRPI is trading around $7.57. The total AUM of the XRP spot ETF market expanded to $1.65 billion in January this year, but then decreased by approximately 27% due to a sharp drop in XRP prices and risk-aversion sentiment stemming from the Iran war. Monthly capital inflow, which was $483 million in December last year, plummeted by 99% to around $64,600 in April this year.

However, some assessments suggest that institutional demand itself is still alive. XRP spot ETFs reportedly traded for 35 consecutive trading days without capital outflow since their launch, which is a stronger initial success record than Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum spot ETFs. In particular, Grayscale's GXRP and Franklin Templeton's XRPZ recorded a combined inflow of $164 million on their first day of listing, leading to a rebound in XRP prices.

The market views BlackRock's potential entry into the XRP spot ETF market as the biggest variable. The media cited internal analyst McClurg's forecast, estimating BlackRock's XRP ETF application period to be late 2026 to early 2027. If BlackRock actually pursues a product launch, there are expectations that funds from pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds could flow into the XRP market through its Aladdin platform.

The current market is in a mixed state of expectations and concerns. TradingNews cited the prolonged Iran war, delays in BlackRock's application, and the possibility of XRP price falling below $1 as major risks. Conversely, it projected that if daily average capital inflows of $40 million to $60 million resume, the XRP spot ETF market size could expand to a maximum of $6.7 billion by year-end.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*