Is it $1.70 or a $1 collapse? XRP reaches a critical turning point

▲ XRP/AI-generated image ©

XRP (Ripple) is fighting for its life to defend the mid-$1 range, enduring Bitcoin's weakness and Middle East risks, amidst spot ETF inflows and whale accumulation. However, the spread of RLUSD and the burden of monthly lock-up releases remain key market variables.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on May 26 (local time), XRP traded in the $1.33-$1.37 range that day, continuing its bearish trend. XRP has fallen 26% this year and is down approximately 62% from its cycle high of $3.657 recorded in July last year. The current price is below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43, indicating a short-term bearish trend.

Market analysis suggests that outflows from US Bitcoin spot ETFs and geopolitical risks in the Middle East are limiting XRP's upside. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 99.27, dampening risk asset appetite, and Bitcoin also fell to the $76,000-$77,200 range. However, the media reported that “funds are actually flowing into XRP-related ETFs.” The XRP spot ETF, XRPR, was launched in September last year, and the cumulative inflow, including subsequent products like XRPI, currently exceeds $1.44 billion.

On-chain data also captured a trend of whale accumulation. Last week, whale investors accumulated an additional 71 million XRP, and new wallet creations and network activity also increased. In contrast, the derivatives market showed a dominant short-term sideways trend outlook. One whale investor reportedly established a position worth approximately $224,000, betting that the XRP price would trade sideways around $1.40 until June.

Technically, $1.32 is considered a key support level. If this level breaks, further corrections to $1.27, or even $1 in a severe scenario, are possible. Conversely, an analysis suggested that if the $1.45 resistance level is broken, it could open up room for an ascent past $1.50 to $1.70, which is the target price based on the cup-and-handle pattern. Standard Chartered presented a target price of $2.80 for XRP in 2026, and some bullish forecasts even mentioned the possibility of over $5.

However, the market is focusing on the spread of RLUSD as the biggest risk. The media pointed out that if Ripple's institutional partners expand RLUSD-based payments instead of XRP, the logic for XRP's real-world use demand could weaken. Additionally, there is a supply burden of approximately 1 billion XRP being unlocked each month. The current market is assessed as a situation where positive factors like ETF inflows and whale accumulation are clashing with negative factors like Bitcoin's weakness and supply burden.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*