Whales are accumulating, but ETFs are dumping... Bitcoin, re-break $80,000 or crash to $60,000?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image ©

As Bitcoin (BTC) retested the $74,000 support line, the market entered a critical turning point, compounded by outflows from spot ETFs and the halt of purchases by Strategy. Conversely, with whale investors continuing to accumulate at low prices, analysis suggests that both the possibility of further sharp declines and a rebound are simultaneously open.

According to TradingNews, an investment media outlet, on May 25 (local time), Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,520, having rebounded by approximately 1.6% over the past 24 hours. However, it has fallen over 6% in the last two weeks and has retested its annual low of $74,508. The outlet diagnosed that amidst the closure of the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, the market direction is being determined more by spot ETF fund flows and changes in institutional supply and demand rather than the price itself.

The biggest negative factor is the large-scale capital outflow from US Bitcoin spot ETFs. According to SoSoValue, $1.26 billion flowed out last week alone, and the cumulative outflow since mid-May reached approximately $1.5 billion. Notably, large-scale redemptions occurred in BlackRock's IBIT, and institutional investors such as Jane Street and Harvard Endowment are also reported to have reduced their Bitcoin exposure. Furthermore, Strategy's temporary halt of additional Bitcoin purchases, as it focuses on repaying approximately $1.5 billion in convertible bonds, also pressured market sentiment. Strategy is currently the largest corporate holder, possessing about 840,000 BTC.

Technical trends are also assessed as unstable. The daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, and the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to around 46. The outlet analyzed that the current chart is forming a typical rising wedge pattern, and if the $74,000 daily support collapses, there could be room for a decline to $60,730. In particular, the SOPR indicator, which represents the profitability of short-term holders, remaining at the 1.00 level was interpreted as a sign that the market has not yet entered a full capitulation phase.

However, there are also assessments that the entire market is not showing only signs of complete collapse. According to Santiment data, the number of whale wallets holding more than 100 BTC has recently surged. This means that whale investors are largely absorbing the ETF redemption volumes and institutional selling pressure. Additionally, the conditional approval of Nasdaq PHLX's Bitcoin option product ‘QBTC’ by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is considered a variable that could increase the possibility of expanding institutional capital inflows in the long term. This product is evaluated to offer smaller contract units than existing options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), thereby enhancing institutional accessibility.

Macroeconomic variables have also been identified as key factors determining future direction. The market is focusing on this week's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and progress in US-Iran negotiations. The outlet suggested that if news of PCE deceleration and an extended ceasefire emerges, Bitcoin could attempt to recover the $79,500-$81,000 resistance zone. Conversely, it warned that if higher-than-expected inflation figures are released, a scenario of a decline to the $60,000 range, along with the collapse of the $74,500 support line, could become a reality.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*