Bitcoin, 2026 Demand 'Lowest'…"Whales Escaped First"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Decline/ChatGPT Generated Image

As signals of slowing on-chain demand continue to be confirmed in the Bitcoin (Bitcoin, BTC) market, warnings about the possibility of further declines are growing. With a sharp drop in large investor movements and network activity and mining indicators simultaneously showing a bearish trend, a sense of caution is spreading throughout the market.

According to Cointelegraph on May 25 (local time), on-chain data provider Glassnode analyzed that Bitcoin's Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) recently dropped to virtually '0'. This indicator tracks the accumulation behavior of whale investors and is interpreted to mean that the market is currently moving towards distribution and cash-out rather than accumulation.

Glassnode explained that a trend of decreasing accumulation was observed across most investor groups categorized by Bitcoin holding size. It added that "distribution or deactivation" movements were also observed among small to medium-sized investors holding less than 1,000 BTC. Glassnode stated, "In Q4 2024, a strong bullish rally followed widespread accumulation across various wallet sizes, but currently, the opposite trend is underway," adding, "Active participation from all investor groups is necessary for a sustainable recovery."

Santiment analyzed that the decline in whale investor trading volume has reached extreme levels. Recently, the number of Bitcoin transactions over $100,000 decreased to an average of 6,417 per day, marking the lowest level since September 2023. Large transactions over $1 million also fell to 1,485, reaching their lowest level since October 2024.

Santiment diagnosed that uncertainties related to the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill and geopolitical risks are increasing the wait-and-see attitude of whale investors. Santiment explained, "In a situation with significant policy and global uncertainties, smart money is reluctant to make active moves."

A clear decrease in network activity was also observed. CryptoQuant, a cryptocurrency data provider, stated that Bitcoin's network activity index, calculated based on the number of active addresses, total transactions, and unspent transactions, has been continuously declining since August 2025. Maartunn from CryptoQuant commented via X (formerly Twitter) that "a trend of weakening demand is appearing across the network."

On-chain analytics platform Bitcoin Vector also analyzed that key fundamental indicators such as network growth and liquidity remain in a bearish phase. Bitcoin Vector stated, "The current market is closer to a stable state without support rather than a healthy sideways movement," adding, "If on-chain fundamentals do not recover, the sustainability of a medium-term rebound may be limited."

Mining indicators have also emerged as a burden. Bitcoin's hashrate plummeted from 1.2 ZH/s to 813 EH/s in recent weeks, a decrease of approximately 22%. This signifies an increase in the shutdown of mining equipment. Cointelegraph reported that the burden of electricity costs increased due to the war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, and the hash price fell below $34 per PH/s per day, pushing many mining companies below their break-even point.

Token Metrics analysts stated, "Bitcoin miners are incurring a loss of $19,000 for every coin produced," adding, "If the difficulty drops by an additional 5% or more within the next 7 days, the capitulation phase for miners could accelerate, increasing spot selling pressure."

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*