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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)
An on-chain analysis has emerged, suggesting that Bitcoin (Bitcoin, BTC)'s ultimate bottom could occur two months from now. While Bitcoin has recently been consolidating in the upper $70,000 range and has failed to reclaim the $82,000 level, an indicator utilizing long-term holder cost basis has once again sent a signal similar to past major bear market bottoms.
Bitcoinist reported on May 23 (local time) that Bitcoin's historical bottom signal has reappeared, citing on-chain data shared by crypto analyst CryptoChan on X (formerly Twitter). The core of the analysis is the ratio between the 6-month to 10-year realized price and the 0- to 10-year realized price. The 6-month to 10-year realized price represents the average purchase price of long-term holders and is currently presented as $60,316. The 0- to 10-year realized price, which is a broader market average cost basis, was aggregated at $64,412.
CryptoChan explained that every time the ratio of these two price ranges dropped below 0.936 and then recovered towards 1.0, the exact bottom of past Bitcoin cycles was formed. When the ratio reaches 1.0, it means that the long-term holder cost basis exceeds the overall market cost basis, implying that even strong conviction holders are in a loss position. This is an analysis that suggests a period where selling pressure is exhausted, and market sentiment reaches extreme fear.
Past cases also supported the same trend. At the 2015 bear market bottom, it took 59 days for this ratio to rise from 0.936 to 1.0. It took 66 days at the 2018-2019 bear market bottom, and 50 days at the bottom during the FTX collapse in November 2022. As the current ratio has once again reached 0.936, if the same pattern repeats, it is observed that Bitcoin's decisive bottoming period could occur between mid to late July 2026.
Market trends are not yet showing a clear recovery. Bitcoin has been consolidating in the upper $70,000 range for the past week and has failed to recover the $82,000 level since mid-May. The $76,000 price level has been tested for three consecutive weeks and has been defended each time, emerging as a significant support zone.
Investor sentiment also reflects weakness. According to CoinCodex data, the Fear & Greed Index stood at 28, indicating a strong fear sentiment prevailing across the market. However, CoinCodex analysts suggested the possibility of a short squeeze towards $83,354 within the next 5 days and anticipated a return to $77,741 in a month. For the 3-month outlook, they presented a target price of $90,529, mentioning a potential 16% increase compared to the current market price.
The on-chain analysis reported by Bitcoinist focuses on the timeline of a cycle bottom rather than a short-term rebound. The period where the cost bases of long-term holders and the overall market converge has repeatedly appeared at the end of past bear markets. If this indicator continues the same trend as in the past, the Bitcoin market will face a key inflection point between mid to late July 2026.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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