Bitcoin, will the October 2025 nightmare return?..."Whales have already seized selling dominance"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ ChatGPT generated image

An analysis has emerged that Bitcoin (BTC) price momentum is once again approaching the risk zone that appeared just before the sharp drop in October last year and the bear market in February this year. As on-chain indicators confirm a weakening trend in upward momentum, concerns have grown that the short-term market structure could become unstable.

NewsBTC reported on May 23 (local time) that cryptocurrency analysis firm Bitcoin Vector analyzed via X (formerly Twitter) that the slowdown in Bitcoin momentum could be a more serious signal than investors perceive. Bitcoin Vector pointed out that Bitcoin price momentum does not necessarily have to fall into deeply negative territory to be a risk signal, and the key observation point is the 0.5 level.

According to Bitcoin Vector, the Glassnode momentum indicator has shown a sharp decline in recent days. This indicator measures the speed and strength of price movements over a certain period. Bitcoin Vector explained that if price momentum falls below 0.5, it could be the first sign that the upward trend is weakening and sellers are starting to take market dominance.

Past instances also heightened the warning. In the last two times Bitcoin lost this key level, the price structure changed. In October 2025, Bitcoin suddenly plummeted to just above $100,000, and in February 2026, it fell to about $62,000. Both trends were presented as cases where weakened spot CVD, recovery of seller control, and deterioration of price structure occurred together.

Currently, according to on-chain data, Bitcoin price momentum remains above the 0.5 level, with a value of approximately 0.7. However, Bitcoin Vector stated that if momentum loses the 0.5 level while spot CVD continues to weaken, the alert level will quickly rise. Bitcoin Vector stated, "If this level is lost while spot CVD continues to weaken, caution quickly increases. This will be the first sign that deterioration has begun beneath the surface."

NewsBTC reported that Bitcoin showed a clear rebound for two months after the sharp drop in early February and continued its positive trend in early May, but the upward momentum cooled in the past week. This is the backdrop for assessments that Bitcoin's price has entered a critical crossroads in the coming weeks.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*