Bitcoin Struggling at $80,000, Will the 'True Bottom' Only Arrive in Two Months?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT generated image ©

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues its tedious sideways movement, failing to recover the $80,000 mark recently, an historically most accurate on-chain indicator has predicted when Bitcoin's true bottom will arrive, drawing investors' attention.

According to crypto media outlet Bitcoinist on May 24 (local time), Bitcoin has been trading in a range in the upper $70,000s, failing to break the psychological resistance of $82,000 since mid-May. Although the $76,000 support level has been tested for three consecutive weeks and held firm, data based on investors' average purchase price, revealed by on-chain expert CryptoChan, suggests the possibility of further market correction.

This analysis utilizes the ratio between the 6-month to 10-year Realized Price band (6m–10y Realized Price, currently $60,316), which represents the average purchase price of long-term holders, and the 0- to 10-year Realized Price band (0–10y Realized Price, currently $64,412), representing the average purchase price of the entire market. Historically, the point at which this ratio drops below 0.936 and then recovers to 1.0 has accurately marked the bottom in every Bitcoin cycle. When the ratio of these two indicators reaches 1.0, it signifies that even strong-conviction investors who have held assets for a long time have entered a loss zone, selling pressure is completely exhausted, and extreme fear has peaked.

Looking at past cases, the time it took for this ratio to recover from 0.936 to 1.0 was 59 days during the 2015 bear market bottom, 66 days during the 2018-2019 bottom, and 50 days during the FTX bankruptcy in November 2022. Currently, this ratio has once again reached 0.936, the starting point for a bottom signal. Assuming historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin's ultimate true bottom is predicted to arrive in mid-to-late July 2026, approximately two months from now.

As of the 23rd, Bitcoin is trading at $75,269, down 2.84% from a week ago, and has recorded declines of 4.65% and 3.55% on the weekly and monthly charts, respectively. According to data analysis platform CoinCodex, the current market's Fear & Greed Index is 28, indicating significantly subdued investor sentiment.

Nevertheless, media experts are also leaving open the possibility of a short-term rebound. CoinCodex analysts predict that a short squeeze (buying pressure resulting from the liquidation or covering of short positions) could occur within the next 5 days, leading to a temporary surge to $83,354. Furthermore, they anticipate that after stabilizing at $77,741 in one month, Bitcoin could embark on a significant upward trajectory, targeting $90,529, an increase of approximately 16% from the current price, in three months.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*