Kalshi: "Bitcoin, 40% Chance of Collapsing Below $50,000"...Where's the Real Bottom?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), S&P 500/AI generated image

The probability of Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $50,000 has risen to 40%. As traders on the prediction platform Kalshi increasingly reflected the possibility of a Bitcoin downturn amidst prolonged market volatility, concerns about a retest of $50,000 spread.

U.Today reported on May 23 (local time) that bearish discussions in the cryptocurrency market intensified immediately after Bitcoin slipped below $75,000 that day. Kalshi released a forecast that the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $50,000 this year has increased to 40%.

The forecast from Kalshi traders was interpreted to mean that Bitcoin is increasingly likely to retest $50,000 and fall below that price level within this year. U.Today reported that traders are becoming increasingly cautious amidst prolonged market volatility.

Earlier this month, Bitcoin showed a strong upward trend along with major cryptocurrencies, recovering the $82,000 level. However, it has since fallen significantly below that price point, trading at $75,410 at the time of writing. Earlier that day, Bitcoin had dropped below $75,000 for the first time in May, hitting its lowest level in about a month.

The bearish trend in the Bitcoin ecosystem also spread to the ETF market. As institutional investors pulled funds from Bitcoin ETFs throughout the week, the latest data from tracking platforms showed that Bitcoin ETFs continued to experience outflows all last week in response to sluggish price movements.

Following the sluggish ETF flows, Bitcoin recorded its largest weekly outflow since January. The 40% chance of falling below $50,000, the departure from $75,000, and the increased ETF outflows combined to heighten market vigilance.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*