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▲ Binance (Binance), Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT generated image ©
The amount of Bitcoin (BTC) futures contracts on Binance, the world's largest virtual asset exchange, is growing at a frightening pace, and investors' betting fervor is at its peak. Despite the recent deterioration of the macroeconomic environment and price adjustments, speculative funds aiming for a rebound have poured in, creating a tense market where future market volatility is expected to become uncontrollably large.
According to the cryptocurrency media outlet Finbold on May 22 (local time), Bitcoin open interest on Binance, the world's largest exchange by daily trading volume, surged by a whopping 40% over the past 82 days. According to data from CryptoQuant, a virtual asset on-chain data analysis company, Binance's Bitcoin open interest, which was around $6.4 billion at the beginning of March this year, increased by an additional $2.56 billion as of this day, breaking the $8.9 billion mark.
Virtual asset experts are providing meaningful diagnoses regarding this phenomenon where open interest has risen above the 180-day moving average (MA). Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant, analyzed that despite the continuous deterioration of the macroeconomic environment, the sharp price correction of Bitcoin strongly attracted speculative traders aiming for a rebound. He explained that this is the first technical signal indicating that the long-term deleveraging phase, which continued after the major crash on October 11, 2025, has virtually entered its final stage.
The enthusiasm in the derivatives market is also clearly confirmed by changes in the funding rate, a financing ratio indicator. According to CoinGlass data, a virtual asset analysis platform, the funding rate has shifted to a clear positive territory, coinciding with the surge in Bitcoin's open interest. Historically, a positive shift in this indicator means that traders holding long (buy) positions are strongly willing to hold the asset even if they have to pay costs, which represents an overall market sentiment leaning towards bullish optimism. If these aggressive leveraged bets by the bulls continue, there is a high possibility that the Bitcoin price will soon launch a strong squeeze rally, retaking the $80,000 level.
However, a sober warning light from an AI-based analysis, which emphasizes downside pressure, has also been lit simultaneously, making premature one-way betting dangerous. Finbold's AI agent, its proprietary financial analysis tool, pointed out the structure of the short-term overheated futures market and predicted that Bitcoin price could undergo another correction within the next 7 days. In a specific scenario, if a long squeeze (a chain liquidation plunge of buy positions, the opposite phenomenon of buying pressure occurring to liquidate or cover short-sell positions) occurs, where funds excessively concentrated in long positions collapse in a chain reaction due to a sudden downward shock, Bitcoin, which is currently at the $77,145 level at the time of reporting, could fall by an additional approximately 2.34% to the $75,343 level around May 29.
As a result, Bitcoin's future trajectory is expected to face an extreme binary fate depending on how whales and traders navigate the psychological resistance level of $80,000 above their heads. Equipped with the strong upward engines of an explosive increase in open interest and a positive funding rate, if the $80,000 level is decisively retaken, the condensed energy will explode, leading directly to a powerful secondary upward rally. On the other hand, if this peak is not overcome and a correction is allowed, triggering a long squeeze chain liquidation as predicted by AI, a short-term further market plunge is inevitable, so investors must engage in thorough leverage risk management.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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