Will Ethereum's Rebound Begin? Will Falling Oil Prices Save ETH?

▲ Ethereum (ETH) ©

An analysis suggests that Ethereum (ETH) is increasing its potential for a rebound by holding the $2,100 level amidst expectations of easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

According to FXStreet, an investment media outlet, on May 21 (local time), Ethereum has maintained a stable trend above $2,100 following reports that the US and Iran are close to a ceasefire agreement mediated by Pakistan. According to the report, both sides are said to be discussing an agreement that includes a full ceasefire and a joint monitoring system for the Strait of Hormuz. Following this news, international oil prices fell to around $96 per barrel, below $100, and the S&P500 index also turned upward.

Thomas Lee, Chairman of BitMine Immersion, diagnosed that the trend of international oil prices is a key variable for Ethereum's price in the future. He explained that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hinted at the possibility of further tightening if inflation remains above 2% in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, stating, “Rising oil prices stimulate inflation, which increases the likelihood of interest rate hikes.” He further analyzed, “Since the cryptocurrency market is linked to liquidity, ETH shows an inverse correlation with oil prices.” Lee added that ETH prices have fallen along with rising international oil prices over the past six weeks.

However, he assessed the current inverse correlation between oil prices and ETH as a short-term phenomenon. He predicts that the Ethereum trend could improve towards the end of the year, as structural growth drivers related to tokenization and Agentic AI are still alive. The market notes Lee's earlier assessment of ETH as one of the strongest assets at the beginning of the US-Iran conflict and is paying attention to his recently somewhat cautious shift in stance. BitMine is currently known as the largest corporate Ethereum treasury company, holding approximately 5.278 million ETH.

Technically, there is still a burden, according to analysis. According to Coinglass data, a total of $47.9 million in liquidations occurred in the ETH market over the past 24 hours, with long position liquidations accounting for $24.2 million. ETH is currently trading below the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), with resistance levels formed between $2,225 and $2,326. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 38, and the Stochastic indicator is also hovering around 21, indicating a continuing bearish trend.

The media suggested $2,211 and $2,225 as short-term resistance levels, analyzing that breaking through $2,244 and $2,326 afterward would be crucial. Conversely, on the downside, $2,108 was identified as a key support level, and if this level breaks, further corrections to $1,909 and $1,741 are possible. However, the market is focusing on the easing of the US-Iran conflict and the stability of international oil prices as key variables that will determine ETH's direction.

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