Cryptocurrency Prediction Market, This Time Focusing on Cuba..."US Air Strike Probability 49%"

▲ Prediction Market/AI-generated image

In the cryptocurrency prediction market, the betting probability reflecting the possibility of a US air strike on Cuba once approached 50%. This is the result of prediction market participants betting on the possibility of military action before the end of the year, as the US aircraft carrier USS Nimitz strike group was deployed to the Caribbean and military tensions related to Cuba escalated.

Benzinga reported on May 21 (local time) that the probability of the US launching drone, missile, or air strikes against Cuba before the end of this year was assessed at 49% on Polymarket, a Polygon (POL)-based prediction market. This probability surged from 15% a month ago and 5% a week ago.

According to the article, $4.34 million was wagered in the prediction market as of the reporting time. However, artillery fire, small arms engagement, ground infiltration, naval bombardment, or cyberattacks alone do not meet the market settlement conditions. Another market reflected a 25% probability of the US launching a military offensive to seize parts of Cuban territory before December 31.

This surge in betting comes amidst the US deployment of the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier and its strike group to the Caribbean. Benzinga reported that this deployment has raised concerns about a potential military conflict. Cuba is said to have acquired over 300 military drones and has reportedly discussed the possibility of attacking the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, US warships, and Key West, Florida.

US President Donald Trump told reporters on May 20 that Cuba was “on our minds” but drew the line at the need for further action. When asked about the possibility of additional measures, Trump stated, “I don’t think that’s necessary.”

The US Department of Justice’s disclosure of murder charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro in connection with the 1996 downing of two civilian aircraft operated by the exile group Brothers to the Rescue was also cited as a factor in the heightened tensions. The surge in prediction market probabilities does not mean that military action has been confirmed, but rather is interpreted as a speculative betting trend reflecting military deployments in the Caribbean and conflict factors related to Cuba.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*