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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)
An analysis has emerged stating that Bitcoin (BTC) has been repeatedly declared 'dead' during Black Swan events, but has consistently recovered and reached new all-time highs after major price drops. Although various negative factors such as exchange hacks, Chinese regulations, the collapse of the ICO bubble, the Terra and FTX crises, massive liquidations, and geopolitical shocks have rattled the market, Bitcoin has consistently created a rebound trend in each cycle.
The Crypto Basic reported on May 20 (local time) that cryptocurrency market commentator Mikkybull analyzed Bitcoin's seven cycles from 2009 to 2026, concluding that Bitcoin has continued to recover even after major Black Swan events. Mikkybull explained that every time wars, exchange collapses, government bans, hacks, and sudden market crashes recurred, the 'Bitcoin death theory' spread, but Bitcoin subsequently showed significant recovery.
The first major shock was the Mt. Gox hack in 2011. Bitcoin surged 3,989 times, from $0.0008 in October 2009 to $31.91 in June 2011. However, around June 19, 2011, hackers accessed an auditor's account information at Mt. Gox, which processed about 70% of Bitcoin transactions at the time. Fake sell orders flooded in, causing Bitcoin's price to plummet from around $17 to $0.01. Approximately 2,000 BTC were stolen during this process, and Bitcoin subsequently fell by 93% to about $2, leading to doubts about its survival.
In the second cycle, Chinese regulations shook the market. Bitcoin rose 56,250%, from about $2 in November 2011 to $1,127 in November 2013. The first halving in November 2012 and increased interest in alternative financial instruments after the Cyprus banking crisis supported this rise. However, in December 2013, the People's Bank of China and regulatory authorities prohibited financial institutions and payment companies from handling Bitcoin transactions. When BTC China, then the largest exchange in China, suspended yuan deposits, Bitcoin plummeted by 87%.
In 2017, the ICO craze and its collapse shook the Bitcoin market. Bitcoin surged 10,530%, from about $185 in August 2015 to $19,665 in December 2017. However, the ICO bubble, where numerous projects raised enormous sums without real-world use cases, burst due to regulatory pressure, fraud, hacks, and capital outflows. In 2018, Facebook, Google, and Twitter banned cryptocurrency-related advertisements, and both China and South Korea tightened digital asset regulations. Bitcoin fell from around $19,783 in December 2017 to $3,200 by the end of 2018, with total losses in the cryptocurrency market exceeding $700 billion.
Subsequently, Bitcoin began to recover from its December 2018 low of about $3,200, reaching an all-time high of $69,044 in November 2021. The third halving in May 2020 and institutional/national interest from entities like Strategy, Tesla, and El Salvador supported this rise. However, in the subsequent bear market, it fell by 77% to $15,479.
In 2022, the collapse of Terra and the bankruptcy of FTX successively hit the market. The Terra crisis led to the collapse of related companies like Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, and Voyager, and the FTX crisis in November of the same year further worsened market conditions. Subsequently, Bitcoin began a new cycle from approximately $15,479 in November 2022, rising 715% to $126,198 by October 2025. The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024 and the fourth halving supported this recovery.
The most recent shocks mentioned are the massive liquidation event on October 10, 2025, and escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran in February 2026. On October 10, 2025, Bitcoin fell from above $122,000 to $101,500. This sell-off was linked to Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and software export controls. This news fueled risk-aversion, leading to the liquidation of 1.6 million traders and approximately $19.16 billion in liquidations within 24 hours. Bitcoin subsequently recovered to around $112,000.
In February 2026, rising tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran led to panic selling across global markets. On February 28, US-Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian nuclear and military facilities and high-ranking leaders, causing Bitcoin to drop from $67,000 to a low of $63,000. This crisis also triggered approximately $1.07 billion in capital outflows from the cryptocurrency market. The Crypto Basic reported that despite the heightened fear, Bitcoin has now recovered to $77,382.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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