Bitcoin, is a 40% crash a 'shakeout'?..."Exceeds $250,000 by year-end" Bullish Scenario Activated

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen into a slump, plummeting about 40% from its peak. However, an analysis of long-term valuation models has revealed an ultra-bullish outlook, predicting it will surge to as much as $255,000 by the end of this year, recovering all its losses.

According to Cointelegraph, a cryptocurrency media outlet, on May 20 (local time), an analysis of the Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Channel, a log-price model that tracks long-term upward trends, showed that Bitcoin's conservative price range by the end of this year is between $90,000 and $255,000. Analyst Sminston diagnosed that historical highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021 all formed near the upper value band of this model, and the recent rebound also began from the lower part of the Logarithmic Growth Channel, which has served as a long-term support line. Sminston expanded the year-end price range for 2027 to $128,000-$308,000, evaluating that this bullish scenario remains valid.

The broader market is also releasing predictions consistent with this year's year-end target price range, aiming for Bitcoin to set new all-time highs in 2026. Bernstein analysts maintain a 2026 target price of $150,000, citing the extended institutional adoption cycle driven by Bitcoin spot ETFs and listed companies, and predict it will reach $200,000 by 2027, the peak prediction period. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, also expects Bitcoin to reclaim $126,000 this year, based on the US's spending on the Iran war and fiat liquidity pressure due to AI infrastructure demand.

Conversely, there are also significant technical indicators warning of short-term liquidation risks. Bitcoin is exposed to the risk of plummeting below $56,000, a roughly 30% drop from its current price, due to a bear flag pattern that has continued for several months. Analysis suggests that if a typical bearish setup fully materializes, selling pressure could become uncontrollable.

However, on-chain data suggests that the deep crash may not materialize as much as technical patterns indicate. The Bitcoin HODL Wave indicator, which tracks the period coins are held without moving in wallets, shows a high probability of a strong bottom forming in the range of $65,900 to $70,500, even if market weakness persists.

CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom analyzed, "In this cycle, a higher and gentler bottom can be formed thanks to a more robust layer of long-term holders," adding, "The key line of defense to hold is the $70,500 level."

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*