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The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is maintaining an upward channel, defending its support level. However, macroeconomic pressures are intensifying as US Treasury bond yields surge to their highest level in approximately 19 years, creating a volatile and precarious market.
According to crypto-focused media NewsBTC on May 20 (local time), the total cryptocurrency market capitalization closed the day up 0.28%, or $7.12 billion, at $2.54 trillion. This modest rise came after a week-long sell-off following the peak of $2.72 trillion recorded on May 9. This correction also deepened to $2.51 trillion, the bottom of the upward channel formed since late March. The rebound on this day stemmed from a rotation of assets. As the S&P 500 index closed down 0.67% at 7,353 on May 19, it is interpreted that some funds exiting the stock market flowed into the cryptocurrency market, creating a slight buying interest.
However, this relief rally is in a very fragile state. This is because the US 30-year Treasury bond yield hit 5.19% on May 19, surpassing its highest level since July 2007. The rise in long-term Treasury yields is generally a strong pressure factor on risk assets, and although asset rotation supported the crypto market on this day, the direction of the overall long-term trend remains uncertain. If the $2.51 trillion bottom is maintained and the market reclaims $2.62 trillion, the upward channel structure will remain intact, allowing it to target $2.72 trillion and $2.81 trillion again. Conversely, if the bottom breaks, the next downward support level will open up to the $2.23 trillion area.
Bitcoin (BTC) also traded up 0.44% at $77,106 on this day, but it is facing a critical test as it is precisely hovering around two key moving averages that traders are closely watching. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a trend indicator that gives greater weight to recent prices, is located at $76,740, and the 100-day EMA is positioned just above it at $76,859. While the asset rotation that lifted the overall crypto market brought some buying interest into Bitcoin, it lacked the strength to decisively break through the congested EMA zone. This creates a vulnerable structure where a failure to defend the support line could lead to deeper declines.
Currently, a golden cross is forming as the 50-day EMA approaches the 100-day EMA from below. If this cross is confirmed, short-term momentum could turn positive, but only if Bitcoin defends its recent swing low support of $75,962. A genuine rebound will only be confirmed if the daily close forms above $80,192, which represents the first technical correction at the Fibonacci 23.6% level in recent price movements. Conversely, if the price drops and closes below $75,962, which is just 2% below the current price, it is expected to be pushed down to the $70,500 area without a trace. A BeInCrypto article analyzed that Bitcoin must win this tight moving average battle to escape short-term downward pressure.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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