Bitcoin, $80,000 Box Range Battle Continues Amid Soaring US Treasury Yields

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), US Dollar (USD) ©

The surge in US Treasury yields is shaking Bitcoin's $80,000 defense line, but with institutional capital inflows and Golden Cross expectations simultaneously reviving, the market has entered a critical juncture.

According to investment media outlet TradingNews on May 15 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuated between $78,743 and $81,958 that day, continuing a fierce battle around the psychological support level of $80,000. In particular, as the US 10-year Treasury yield soared to 4.55% and the 30-year yield to 5.12%, pressure was exerted on risk assets across the board, and Bitcoin also fell below $80,000 during the day, showing a bearish trend.

However, the chart structure itself is evaluated to have improved compared to a month ago. BTC has risen approximately 7.39% over the past 30 days and rebounded about 32% from its February low. The current maximum resistance level for the market is identified as the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $82,941. The media analyzed that a full transition to an upward trend can only be confirmed if this level is breached. Conversely, maintaining above the 20-day EMA of $79,391 and the 50-day EMA of $76,695 was interpreted as a sign that the mid-term trend remains positive.

Technical indicators showed mixed signals. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 57.9, leaving room before the overheated zone, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) was still maintaining a bearish signal. However, the 15-minute MACD histogram turned positive, indicating a slight easing of short-term selling pressure. At the same time, the daily Average True Range (ATR) was recorded at approximately $1,913, suggesting that the current narrow box range could lead to significant volatility in the future.

Institutional fund flows were cited as a factor supporting the market's bottom. US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of approximately $131 million in one day, partially offsetting the impact of the previous $635 million net outflow. Citing SoSoValue data, the media emphasized that the continuous outflow of institutional funds is not occurring. In addition, progress in discussions on the US cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, and the introduction of the European MiCA regulatory framework were mentioned as factors raising expectations for increased institutional participation.

Market sentiment remains cautious. CoinMarketCap's Fear & Greed Index stayed in the 'Fear' zone at 43, and Bitcoin's dominance rose to 58.4%. The media analyzed that this indicates investment capital is defensively moving towards Bitcoin rather than altcoins. Simultaneously, CoinGlass's liquidation heatmap showed a potential for a large short squeeze (buying pressure occurring to liquidate or cover short positions) above $85,000. If BTC breaks the $82,900 resistance, a scenario of retesting $100,000 via $85,000-$88,000 could open up. Conversely, a close below $79,400 warned of a potential retest of the $75,000 range.

According to CoinMarketCap, at the time of reporting, the price of Bitcoin was $79,078, down approximately 2.8% over 24 hours.

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