XRP, to exceed $1.50 within May? Looking at prediction market probabilities

▲ XRP/ChatGPT generated image ©

As XRP (Ripple) maintains the $1.40 level, prediction market investors are reportedly seeing the possibility of breaking through $1.50 within May as the most likely scenario.

According to the cryptocurrency media outlet Finbold on May 13 (local time), traders on the decentralized prediction market Kalshi projected a 78% probability of XRP exceeding $1.50 in May. The possibility of breaking through $1.60 was tallied at 37%, while the probability of rising above $1.70 was 16%, and the possibility of breaking through $1.80 was about 11%.

However, the market remains cautious about the possibility of breaking through $2. According to Kalshi data, the probability of XRP surpassing $1.90 within May was only 7%, and the possibility of breaking through the psychological resistance levels of $2 and $2.10 was each assessed at around 6%. The media reported that short-term investor sentiment still shows high volatility, with prediction market probabilities surging on May 11 and then quickly adjusting again.

The market analyzed that XRP's price movements have mirrored the overall cryptocurrency market trends in recent months. However, the network's own growth continues steadily. XRP spot ETFs have attracted over $1.3 billion in cumulative funds since their launch in late 2025, which is interpreted as a sign of increasing institutional demand.

Regulatory expectations were also cited as a factor supporting investor sentiment. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to review the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, in mid-May, and the market is paying attention to the possibility of increased XRP adoption if regulatory clarity expands. Finbold explained that regulatory uncertainties surrounding XRP have largely eased since the lawsuit between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was resolved in 2025.

XRP was trading at $1.42 at the time of writing, down less than 0.3% on a daily basis. On a weekly basis, it showed a weakness of approximately 0.5%. Currently, XRP is moving within a $1.40-$1.50 range, and the media analyzed that if it stably breaks through the resistance zone of $1.45-$1.50, there could be a short-term possibility of rising above $1.70. Conversely, it added that maintaining the key support level of $1.38 is important.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*