Bitcoin, Rare Golden Cross Imminent in 2 Years...Countdown to Test Breakout of $82,500

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) is fueling expectations for a major upward reversal, with a golden cross signal on a key valuation indicator imminent for the first time in approximately two years.

NewsBTC reported on May 12 (local time) that Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator is on the verge of forming a golden cross, where it crosses above its 200-day exponential moving average. CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 described this signal as a representative trend reversal signal and a bullish indicator.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is touching its 200-day moving average around $82,500. If this level is broken, the downward pressure that has lasted for several months could ease. Conversely, a warning was also issued that if Bitcoin fails to settle above the 200-day moving average, it could fall back to around $50,000.

This signal is noteworthy because it appeared not in a simple price chart but in an on-chain valuation indicator. MVRV compares Bitcoin's market value and realized value to gauge investors' average profitability and overheating. CW8900 previously assessed that Bitcoin had transitioned to a bullish trend in late April, based on the 30-day simple moving average of Bitcoin's MVRV crossing above its 90-day simple moving average.

Past examples also supported the bullish case. According to NewsBTC, the last time a similar MVRV golden cross appeared was immediately after the cycle bottom in 2022. At that time, Bitcoin surged approximately 90% from about $16,300 to $31,000 in early 2023. Additionally, a similar signal in September 2023 was followed by an approximately 400% rally, reaching an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025.

Glassnode data also suggests that there is still room before entering an overheated zone. Based on short-term holder cost, Bitcoin's pre-overheat stage is set at $92,000, and the overheated zone at $104,000. This analysis leads to the conclusion that the current price has not yet reached historically extended territory.

Technical analysts also mentioned the possibility of further upside. Shib Spain analyzed that Bitcoin has broken above its multi-month downtrend line on the weekly chart, supported by a bullish cross in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. Moustache also assessed that Bitcoin's market capitalization and Relative Strength Index (RSI) have rebounded from long-term support on the monthly chart, indicating a larger move ahead.

Bitcoin has entered a phase where expectations for an on-chain golden cross and a test of the 200-day moving average coincide. The short-term key observation point is whether it can settle at $82,500, and if it fails to hold that level, the possibility of retesting $50,000 remains a market caution factor.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*