Direction emerges after US CPI announcement… Is Bitcoin's next target $84,000?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©Godasol

Although Bitcoin has succeeded in defending the $80,000 mark, market tension is rising as it repeatedly fails to break through the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ahead of the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Institutional funds are flowing in again, but Middle East risks and inflation concerns appear to be limiting upward momentum.

According to the investment media FXStreet on May 12 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) was trading near $81,000 on the day, attempting to break through the 200-day EMA resistance level of $82,130. The market is closely watching the US CPI announcement as the biggest variable, and there are observations that inflation pressure due to soaring oil prices could increase the volatility of risky assets.

The media reported that the April CPI is expected to rise by 0.6% month-on-month and the annual increase is projected to reach 3.7%, the highest level since September 2023. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy, is also expected to rise by 0.3% monthly and 2.7% annually. With international oil prices remaining high due to the prolonged conflict between the US and Iran, the market is also wary of the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) strengthening its hawkish stance.

However, institutional and corporate demand remained robust. According to SoSoValue data, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $27.25 million on the 12th alone, breaking a two-day consecutive outflow streak. Michael Saylor's Strategy further purchased 535 BTC, increasing its total holdings to 818,869 BTC. The average purchase price was recorded at $75,540.

Technically, the short-term upward structure is still maintained. Bitcoin is trading above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, and it is holding the psychological support level of $80,000 and the Fibonacci 50% retracement level of $78,962. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 61, not yet entering the overbought zone, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also maintaining a gentle upward trend.

On the other hand, in the upward range, the 200-day EMA of $82,130 is considered a key resistance level. If it breaks through this, there is a possibility of testing the supply zones of $83,437 and $84,410. Conversely, if $80,000 breaks, there are predictions that the correction could extend to $78,962, and then to the support level in the $76,000 range.

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