Bitcoin, Why Does It Get Stuck Only When It Reaches $82,300…The Real Showdown Opens This Week

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©Dasol Ko

Bitcoin successfully defended the $80,000 support line but repeatedly hit resistance at $82,300, causing the entire market to enter a consolidation phase. While expectations for BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF capital inflow, the US cryptocurrency market structure bill, and the Clarity Act remain alive, Iran risk and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) have emerged as key variables that will determine short-term direction.

According to investment specialized media TradingNews on May 11 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke above $82,400 during intraday trading before being pushed down by selling pressure, trading around $81,118. Bitcoin is currently facing strong selling pressure between its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $82,595 and the key resistance level of $82,300. The media reported that with four failed breakout attempts in the past two weeks, market attention has effectively focused on the $82,300-$82,595 range.

The market views the defense of the $80,000 level as a critical short-term turning point. Experts analyzed that if the May 8 low of $79,250 is maintained, the uptrend remains valid. Conversely, if this level breaks, there is a possibility of retesting $78,000 and $75,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recorded 44, and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) remained at -81. The media assessed that it is not yet in the oversold zone and that a sideways trend is likely for the time being.

Institutional fund flows were still interpreted as bullish signals. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) attracted approximately $1.7 billion in capital during April, accounting for about 70% of the total inflows into US Bitcoin spot ETFs. Morgan Stanley's MSBT also experienced no capital outflow for a single day since its launch on April 8, with cumulative inflows increasing to $193 million and total assets under management (AUM) rising to $239 million. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas evaluated MSBT's launch as a top 1% ETF debut case.

On-chain indicators also supported the positive outlook. CryptoQuant explained that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) is preparing to break above its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which could be the first golden cross since 2023. Furthermore, with the Spot Taker CVD turning green, it analyzed that large-scale buying is shifting from limit orders to market buy orders. The media reported that this is being interpreted as “actual demand beginning to dominate the market.”

Macroeconomic variables remain a burden. After US President Donald Trump stated that Iran's revised peace plan was “completely unacceptable,” international oil prices again surpassed $100 per barrel, causing Bitcoin to fluctuate sharply. The market is closely watching the US CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) to be released this week. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch, the probability of a June interest rate cut has fallen to 4.2%. Meanwhile, in the altcoin market, expectations for the US cryptocurrency market structure bill and the Clarity Act were reflected, with Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), Sui (SUI), Cardano (ADA), and Dogecoin (DOGE) showing stronger performance compared to Bitcoin.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*