XRP, once again approaching resistance blocked for 3 months... Will it break $1.5 this time?

▲ XRP/AI generated image

XRP is attempting to break through the $1.50 resistance level for the third time in the past three months. The previous two attempts both failed to hold above $1.50 on a weekly closing basis after surpassing it intraday. This time, the key question is whether the US cryptocurrency market structure bill, Bitcoin (BTC) strength, and institutional adoption cases can align to produce a different outcome.

24/7 Wall St. reported on May 10 (local time) that XRP has risen 7.5% over the past week and 5.4% over the past 24 hours, approaching the $1.45 resistance zone again. XRP has tested the $1.50 area twice in the last three months but failed to establish itself there. In the March 17 rally, it climbed to $1.60, and in the April attempt, it touched $1.51 before being pushed back down.

The March surge occurred after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity. At that time, XRP's trading volume surged by 250%, reaching a high of $1.60, its highest level since mid-February. However, the momentum was broken the next day when the Federal Reserve (Fed) froze interest rates at 3.50-3.75% and raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.7%. XRP fell 5.3% in one session to $1.46 and dropped to $1.40 the following week.

The second test came on April 17. At that time, XRP ETFs recorded their largest weekly inflow of $55.39 million in 2026, and XRP rose to $1.51. However, it fell 4% in the same session, retracing 54% of its weekly gains and settling around $1.44. However, 24/7 Wall St. noted that the April correction was more moderate than March's, emphasizing that XRP did not plummet to the $1.28-$1.30 range as in previous failed rallies.

A key variable for this renewed attempt at $1.50 is the review of the US cryptocurrency market structure bill scheduled for May 14. This bill contains provisions that could permanently classify XRP as a digital commodity and, if passed, was seen as a catalyst that could further open up ETF inflows. Additionally, on May 6, JPMorgan Kinexys, Mastercard, and Ondo Finance completed the first cross-border redemption of tokenized US Treasuries on the XRP Ledger, presented as an example of institutional readiness.

Technically, the $1.45-$1.47 range remains a critical resistance level. This price range has thwarted XRP's upward attempts four times in the past three months, with the 100-day exponential moving average at $1.49 and the bottom of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud around $1.45. 24/7 Wall St. analyzed that for a breakout to be confirmed, XRP must close above $1.46 on the weekly chart, and an intraday break of $1.50 alone is not sufficient. Based on a cup-and-handle pattern, if XRP maintains above $1.50 on a weekly basis, targets of $1.65-$1.70 are suggested.

However, variables remain in the bill's passage process. On May 9, three major US banking industry groups officially opposed the stablecoin compromise included in the bill, meaning the May 14 review could face significant resistance, 24/7 Wall St. reported. Whether XRP breaks through this time depends on whether the bill review, Bitcoin's strength, and institutional adoption cases can collectively generate enough buying pressure to overcome the price resistance.

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