Bitcoin could fall to $75,000 if 'this level' breaks... "Long-position investors on alert"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a short-term correction warning after a recent 36% rebound. As the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key indicator of price strength, has risen to its highest level in approximately 15 weeks, the market is paying close attention to whether the $78,000 support level will be breached.

According to Cointelegraph on May 8, Bitcoin rose from a macro low of $60,000 to $82,800 on Wednesday. During this process, the daily RSI rose from 39 at its local low in March to 70 on Wednesday. An RSI of 70 is generally considered an overbought threshold, and entering this zone after a strong rally increases the likelihood of a short-term correction.

Trader Jelle said on X (formerly Twitter), “The moment Bitcoin's daily Relative Strength Index entered the overbought zone coincided with it touching the 200-day exponential moving average.” He added, “It's natural to find resistance here.” Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin is confirming resistance near the 200-day exponential moving average.

Analyst Crypto Tice explained that this signal is a rare one, having appeared only four times in the past year. He stated that each time this signal appeared, a short-term pullback followed, saying, “A daily overbought state is not resolved by consolidation. It is resolved by a shakeout.” Another analyst, Rekt Fencer, pointed out that Bitcoin dropped 35% to 38% after the same signal appeared twice recently.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator also added to the overheating warnings. Analyst FrankAFetter stated that it is the first time since November 2024 that Bitcoin has risen above the overbought level of the Bollinger Bands for short-term holders. The original text reported that after reaching similar levels at that time, Bitcoin's price dropped by 15%.

The key support level is $78,000. Jelle explained that the 200-day exponential moving average at $83,000 is acting as resistance, and the first major area of interest is $78,000. He said, “If this zone is turned into support, we can challenge the moving average again.”

Tradermayne also suggested that maintaining the $78,000 to $80,000 support level in the short-term timeframe could be a clear benchmark for bulls. Another analyst, Master of Crypto, analyzed that Bitcoin is holding the $78,500 to $79,100 support zone, and if buyers defend this zone, the next move could be towards $82,000 to $83,000, where a lot of liquidity has accumulated. However, he warned that if this support level breaks, Bitcoin could quickly fall to $75,000 to $76,000.

Liquidation maps also support the importance of $78,000. According to CoinGlass data, if Bitcoin corrects below $78,000, it could trigger the liquidation of over $3.1 billion in leveraged long positions across all exchanges. With overbought indicators, 200-day exponential moving average resistance, and the $78,000 support level converging simultaneously, Bitcoin's short-term rally is facing a significant test.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*