Benjamin Cowen "Bitcoin Will Continue a Boring Sideways Trend Throughout 2026"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently shown an upward trend, surpassing $80,000, but it remains undervalued according to the logarithmic regression model. An analysis suggests that a boring sideways market will continue throughout 2026.

On May 7 (local time), crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen diagnosed the value of the virtual asset market using a mathematical model in a video uploaded to his YouTube channel. The current virtual asset market capitalization is around $2.7 trillion. Cowen analyzed that this is significantly lower than the fair value indicated by the logarithmic regression trendline. The undervaluation phase is likely to persist throughout the remainder of 2026. Significant market changes are expected only after next year.

Compared to past cycles, the current market is proceeding without the explosive euphoria. In 2011, 2013, and 2017, market capitalization entered an overvalued phase, significantly exceeding fair value. In contrast, in 2021, due to macroeconomic variables such as inflation and the labor market, the enthusiasm was not as strong as in the past. The recent rise is also assessed as a peak formed amidst investor indifference, similar to the 2019 case.

Bitcoin's performance has been relatively subdued compared to other asset classes. This year, Bitcoin's returns are lower than stock markets such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, as well as gold and the energy sector. While Bitcoin has recovered its price from a few months ago, traditional assets have shown a steady upward curve. This is the reason why the virtual asset market capitalization has not escaped the undervalued territory based on the logarithmic regression line.

Despite the short-term undervaluation trend, the market's long-term growth potential remains high. Cowen predicts that the total virtual asset market capitalization, currently $2.7 trillion, will grow to a scale of $10 trillion over future cycles. He emphasized that 2026 could see a boring process of building a base in the undervalued phase. Investors need patience to await the overvalued phase that will appear in the next cycle, rather than being swayed by short-term rallies.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*