Bitcoin Faces Fated Test at $84,000... 'If It Fails, It Drops to $50,000'

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) is testing the $82,000 level, but a bear market warning has emerged that it could fall to $50,000 if it fails to reclaim the $84,000 resistance. Whether it reclaims the 200-day moving average has emerged as a critical turning point for the continuation or reversal of this downward cycle.

Cointelegraph reported on May 6, citing analysis from cryptocurrency investment firm TradingShot, that Bitcoin is approaching the most critical resistance zone in a bear market. TradingShot explained that Bitcoin is attempting to test the 200-day simple moving average on a daily basis, and that this zone is the most important resistance in a bear cycle.

The key price level is $84,000. Cointelegraph stated that according to TradingView data, Bitcoin continues to test the $82,000 level, but it is crucial to reclaim the $84,000 area as support in the next phase. TradingShot compared the current price movement to the 2022 bear market. At that time, Bitcoin retested the 200-day simple moving average from below but failed to recover, subsequently falling to new macro lows.

TradingShot analyzed that Bitcoin has already entered a pivot zone formed from previous lows. This structure is a pattern often seen in downtrends, explaining that a pivot zone formed from a previous low later acted as resistance. TradingShot stated that if Bitcoin is rejected at the current level, the continuation of its bear cycle will be confirmed, potentially heading towards $50,000, but if it successfully breaks through, this scenario will be invalidated.

Below, the bull market support band was presented as a key defense line. This support band consists of the 20-week simple moving average and the 21-week exponential moving average, currently located around $78,000. Trading account Cryptic Trades viewed that the broader market structure remains intact as long as the price holds above this zone and the April 2025 bottom formation zone of $76,000.

Cryptic Trades explained that a short-term rejection could occur around the $84,000 mark, which is a lost higher timeframe support zone. If Bitcoin reclaims $84,000, it could erase the bear market continuation warning, but if it fails to defend $78,000 and $76,000, the $50,000 drop scenario remains a key risk for the market.

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