Arthur Hayes "Bitcoin to $125,000"...identifies 'money printing' as the real catalyst

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, reaffirmed his prediction of Bitcoin (BTC) reaching $125,000, asserting that the driving force behind its rise is not regulatory legislation but rather global liquidity expansion.

Benzinga reported on May 5 (local time) that Hayes maintained his $125,000 Bitcoin price target at Consensus Miami 2026. Hayes assessed that discussions on virtual asset legislation in the US, including the US crypto market structure bill (CLARITY), are not key variables that will move the market. He stated that these bills would not have a substantial impact on Bitcoin's price unless they lead to additional money printing.

Hayes emphasized that the virtual asset industry has already grown into a multi-trillion-dollar market even without regulatory clarity. He explained that regulations are merely mechanisms that primarily benefit centralized entities and do not change the intrinsic value of underlying assets like Bitcoin. He pointed out that anyone who wanted to integrate Bitcoin into their business since 2009 has already found their own way to do so.

The core reason he presented for Bitcoin's value is its utility operating outside the traditional banking system. Hayes noted that Bitcoin has already proven its ability to function without regulatory approval, and he views legislation as distant from Bitcoin's core value proposition.

At the heart of the $125,000 forecast is the logic of monetary expansion. Hayes cited past examples such as the bank bailouts during the 2008 financial crisis, COVID-19 stimulus payments, the Biden administration's Green New Deal, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, explaining that large-scale fiscal spending and credit creation have boosted the value of bearer assets like Bitcoin and gold. He argued that the more money is printed in the US and globally, the higher Bitcoin's fiat currency-denominated value becomes.

Hayes diagnosed that the global economy has entered a wartime economy phase. In such a scenario, government spending and credit creation increase, which he analyzed as a factor supporting risk assets. He noted that Bitcoin has outperformed Nasdaq and gold since February 28, viewing this relative strength as reflecting expectations of liquidity expansion.

The reduction in high-income jobs due to artificial intelligence was also presented as a variable that will pressure central banks to respond. Hayes warned that job losses among high-income earners, including in the tech sector, could lead to a slowdown in consumption, reduced corporate revenues, increased defaults, and a credit crunch. He argued that if such a vicious cycle materializes, policymakers would have no choice but to resort to monetary easing to stabilize the financial system.

Ultimately, Hayes's bullish case for Bitcoin focuses on liquidity rather than regulation. He believes that if the pace of credit creation by central and commercial banks unfolds as he predicts, Bitcoin could reach $125,000 regardless of whether legislation passes.

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