Bitcoin, Directly Refutes Crash Theory with PMI..."Market That Only Looked at Halving Was Wrong"

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An analysis has emerged suggesting that the Bitcoin (BTC) bull market is not yet over, as US manufacturing indicators have recovered to the economic expansion baseline. Bitcoin researcher Plan C argued that a full-fledged Bitcoin bull market has historically unfolded when the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is above 50, and that recent indicators signal the resumption of an upward cycle.

BeInCrypto reported on May 5 that Plan C analyzed that the Bitcoin bull market has officially begun, based on the latest US manufacturing indicators. Plan C refuted predictions that Bitcoin could fall by 50% to $50,000, pointing out that such forecasts rely too heavily on the four-year halving cycle.

The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for April recorded 52.7%. This indicator has been above 50 for four consecutive months, indicating an expansionary trend in US manufacturing. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was also revised upwards to 54.5, reaching its highest level since May 2022.

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index is an indicator calculated based on surveys of purchasing managers at US factories. A reading above 50 indicates manufacturing expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. After approximately 26 months of stagnation, the index recovered above 50 in January 2026. A chart released by Plan C shows that since 2009, major upward phases of Bitcoin have coincided with the PMI breaking above 50.

Plan C stated, “Bitcoin has never ended a full bull market while the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index remained below 50. Bitcoin has always followed the economic cycle, and this time it is showing the same trend like clockwork.” He argued that investors are missing the next phase by clinging solely to the risks of the four-year halving cycle.

Plan C believes that manufacturing demand, liquidity, and credit conditions now have a greater impact on spot prices than supply structure. He interpreted the breakthrough in the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index as a point where funds are moving back into risk assets. The new orders sub-index for April rose to 54.1%, presented as a sign of accelerating spring demand.

S&P Global indicators also pointed in the same direction. The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for April rose to 54.5, and new orders showed the fastest growth in four years. Production also increased at its highest rate since April 2022. S&P Global explained that inventory building ahead of new tariffs and supply pressures from the Middle East conflict partly contributed to the rise in the index. Business confidence reached its highest level since February 2025.

However, there are also counterarguments challenging the bullish outlook. Standard Chartered argued that Bitcoin could retest $50,000 before embarking on a sustained recovery. The bank cited weakening demand for Ethereum spot ETFs and slowing institutional fund flows as reasons. Furthermore, in 2014, the ISM index rose, but Bitcoin fell, and in 2015, despite the index showing weakness, Bitcoin rose. From 2023 to 2025, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index remained below 50 for nearly two years, yet Bitcoin surged by approximately 700%.

Other analysts view the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index not as a direct catalyst for Bitcoin but as a proxy indicator for future US Federal Reserve policy. The S&P report noted that exports decreased for the 11th consecutive month, and factory employment fell for the first time in nine months. Input cost inflation hit a 10-month high, narrowing the scope for short-term interest rate cuts.

Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $78,000 and $80,000. The next ISM indicator will be released on June 1, remaining a variable that will determine the continuation of Plan C's PMI-based bull market logic.

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