"If $80,000 isn't held, it will fall again"...Bitcoin faces its true test

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT generated image ©

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a rebound over the past two weeks, reviving investor sentiment across the virtual asset market, but whether it can maintain support at $80,000 has emerged as a key variable determining its short-term direction.

NewsBTC reported on May 5 (local time), citing QCP Capital's market insights team, that Bitcoin recovered from lows near $75,000 to the $80,000 range. This rebound was attributed to a combination of recovering institutional demand and easing geopolitical risks. Major virtual assets such as Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL) also rose alongside Bitcoin, reviving risk-on sentiment across digital assets.

QCP Capital viewed spot ETF fund flows as a central pillar of this recovery. Last week, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of approximately $163 million. While outflows, presumed to be due to month-end rebalancing and basis trade adjustments, occurred from April 27 to 29, a single-day inflow of approximately $630 million on Friday offset them.

Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs was also strong in April. NewsBTC reported that net inflows for April reached $2.44 billion, marking the strongest monthly demand since 2026. This is approximately double the amount in March and pushed cumulative net inflows to over $58.5 billion since its launch in January 2024. However, it was also noted that the cumulative inflows are about $2.5 billion lower than the October 2025 peak of $61.19 billion, suggesting that the recovery is not yet fully complete.

In the macro environment, easing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz was cited as another factor behind the rebound. QCP Capital analyzed that the conflict premium related to Hormuz has not yet completely disappeared, and the current Bitcoin strength is closer to a relief rally than a structural shift. While new short positions continue to flow in during the recent upward trend, indicating potential for a short squeeze, it is too early to say that investor sentiment has fully turned bullish.

Market analysts see $80,000 as a key psychological resistance level. NewsBTC reported that if Bitcoin clearly breaks above $80,000 and holds there, further momentum-driven upward trading is possible. Conversely, if it is pushed back down from this level, profit-taking could occur, potentially leading it back to the mid-$70,000 range.

QCP Capital identified renewed tensions between the US and Iran, energy markets sensitive to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and US tariff policies targeting importers of Iranian oil as key risk factors. Ultimately, whether Bitcoin's current recovery will gain structural strength above $80,000 or remain a short-term rebound driven by geopolitical easing will be determined by the trading flows in the coming sessions.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*