XRP, It's Not Over Yet...Warning of a Bigger Trap After Weekly Rebound

▲ XRP/AI Generated Image

Although XRP is showing signs of recovery on the weekly chart, a cautious view has been raised that the end of its correction has not yet been confirmed in the long-term trend.

Bitcoinist reported on May 4 (local time) that crypto analyst ChartNerd positively assessed XRP's short-term recovery trend but analyzed that a complete bullish reversal has not yet been confirmed in a larger timeframe. ChartNerd stated that while bullish signals are appearing on XRP's weekly chart, realistic caution is needed due to the long-term cycle structure.

Key rebound signals were confirmed on the weekly chart. ChartNerd explained that XRP's weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered past cycle low zones, and a golden cross has formed on the weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. Furthermore, the price is holding near the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and the monthly 50 EMA is also acting as support. This is interpreted as a sign that downward pressure is weakening and buying interest is regaining strength.

However, a cautious approach was deemed necessary for the 3-month chart. ChartNerd considered the 3-month chart more crucial for removing short-term noise and confirming the overall cycle structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on this chart remains at a higher level than the lows recorded before strong reversals in past bearish structures, suggesting that the long-term correction may not be entirely over yet.

The 3-month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) was also mentioned as a burden. ChartNerd analyzed that this indicator is still showing signs of fatigue in a high zone, and the possibility of a dead cross in the long-term timeframe cannot be ruled out. In particular, while a golden cross appeared on the weekly chart, the fact that the MACD on the 3-month chart is acting as resistance was presented as a key warning.

ChartNerd did not deny the possibility of XRP rising in May or June. However, he suggested that the current rebound might only be a temporary bounce within a downtrend, not a long-term trend reversal, and that there is a risk of forming lower highs and then hitting new lows again within the year. Ultimately, for a bullish scenario to be valid, it must not only rebound on the weekly chart but also break through the long-term resistance on the 3-month chart.

XRP's future trajectory depends on confirmation in the long-term timeframe rather than just a short-term rebound. While weekly indicators show the potential for a recovery in buying interest, the market remains open to both further upside and potential re-decline, as the long-term chart has not yet confirmed a bullish reversal.

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