Bitcoin, 7 Concentrated Negative Factors in May Alone...Should I Sell Now and Run Away?

▲ US, Iran, Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 38% from its peak. Furthermore, with seven macroeconomic negative factors concentrated in May alone, the cryptocurrency market has entered its most dangerous volatility period in years.

In a video uploaded on May 4 (local time), Guy Turner, host of the cryptocurrency specialized media Coin Bureau, analyzed that the adage "sell in May," a statistical superstition, is highly likely to become a real macroeconomic disaster in 2026. Turner pointed to the US crypto market structure bill (CLARITY), which had bipartisan support in the House, being deadlocked in the Senate Banking Committee and facing rejection, as a major threat. If the bill is not processed before the Memorial Day recess, the virtual asset industry will revert to an era of harsh regulatory enforcement until 2027 without a clear legal foundation.

The confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh is a trigger that could deliver a hawkish shock to the market. The replacement of the head of the monetary authority amidst unresolved inflation is a factor that extremely heightens uncertainty in asset markets. Furthermore, in the first quarter of 2026 alone, over 81,000 layoffs occurred in the technology sector, including Meta and Microsoft, signaling the full-scale onset of a white-collar recession. Tech workers are being forced to sell their Bitcoin holdings to cover living expenses, rapidly absorbing market liquidity.

The fact that Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett has accumulated a record $373 billion in cash is a strong signal foreshadowing a market bubble collapse. Buffett took the same defensive stance just before the crashes in 2000 and 2008, implying that the value of all assets, including cryptocurrencies, is currently overvalued. The financial crises of companies holding large amounts of Ethereum (ETH) are also severe. Bit mine Immersion recorded a $6.5 billion loss from Ethereum investments, facing bankruptcy, and SharpLink also terminated its asset management contract, fueling fears of a chain liquidation.

Morgan Stanley's submission of an unusual risk disclosure document, mentioning even the risk of quantum computer hacking when launching Bitcoin products, is also dampening the sentiment of institutional investors. Externally, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plummeted by 90%, and international oil prices surpassed $126 per barrel, with surging energy prices blocking the Fed's path to interest rate cuts. With South Africa announcing unprecedented strong regulations, including mandatory submission of private keys, the concentrated threats in May maximize downward pressure on the market.

Investors need a strategy to prepare for extreme volatility by reducing leverage to less than 5x and converting a portion of their assets into cash. The success or failure of this entire cycle will depend on whether the market absorbs the complex negative factors and consolidates, or if it leads to a massive crash.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*