XRP, retail investors' 'hope torture' in a box range..."If $1.3 breaks, it's over"

▲ XRP/ChatGPT generated image

XRP is trapped in a narrow box range, losing direction and consolidating sideways.

According to an FXStreet report on May 4 (local time), XRP maintained a slight upward trend around the $1.40 mark as of Monday. The current price has not been able to break out of the range between the $1.30 support and $1.40 resistance levels. This reflects a weakening investment sentiment in both digital investment products and derivatives. Demand for derivatives remains sluggish. According to CoinGlass data, Monday's futures open interest averaged $2.5 billion, a stark contrast to the July high of $10.94 billion. Retail investors' skepticism about whether the upward trend can be sustained in the short and medium term persists.

The XRP spot ETF also shows signs of waning interest in related products. Last week, a total of $35,210 in outflows occurred. According to SosoValue data, cumulative inflows are $1.29 billion, and the average net asset value remains at approximately $1.06 billion. The stagnation of institutional capital inflows is hindering a price rebound.

From a technical perspective, XRP is trading at $1.39, consolidating just below moving average resistance. The short-term direction is closer to neutral to bearish. The 20-day Bollinger Band midline, converging at the same level as the 50-day exponential moving average located at $1.41, sits above the price. The uptrend is being suppressed at the top of the recent volatility range.

Momentum indicators are mixed. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 50 midline. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has slightly declined into negative territory, suggesting a lack of conviction regarding direction after the recent rebound.

On the upside, the first resistance level is the 50-day exponential moving average near $1.41. Above that, the upper Bollinger Band near $1.47 awaits. If this zone is breached, a stronger barrier will be encountered at the breakout point of the downtrend line near $1.50. The 100-day exponential moving average at $1.50 further reinforces medium-term resistance. A complete break above this resistance zone opens the way for a rally to the 200-day exponential moving average located at $1.74. Conversely, the first downside support level is the lower Bollinger Band near $1.36. If the daily close is below this level, sellers will regain control, triggering a deeper price correction.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*