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Ripple has enjoyed a series of business boons, including recording its highest-ever corporate value and resolving regulatory risks. However, it remains stuck at a price more than 60% lower than its previous high, hampered by macroeconomic uncertainty and a lack of liquidity.
DL News, a specialized virtual asset media outlet, reported on May 1 (local time) that XRP is trading 62% lower than its previous high of $3.65. Louis De Backer, a virtual asset trading analyst at financial services platform Marex, diagnosed this as a problem of macroeconomic noise and flow quality. De Backer analyzed that the conflict between the US and Iran, which pushed international oil prices past $114 per barrel, has made central bank interest rate cuts less likely, putting downward pressure on the market as a whole.
As energy prices hit a four-year high and the Federal Reserve's policy direction diverged, investors are cutting their budgets for risky assets and flocking to highly liquid large assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). De Backer assessed that XRP is currently acting like a beta asset in the market, failing to generate independent demand and passively following overall market trends. He explained that investors would only turn their attention beyond Bitcoin to altcoins once the macroeconomic environment stabilizes.
Shallow spot market depth and a derivatives-centric trading structure were also identified as obstacles to a price increase. If derivatives flows dominate the market in a state of insufficient liquidity, price fluctuations are only temporary and difficult to convert into long-term trends. Currently, XRP is confined to a box range between $1.35 and $1.45, and sustained spot buying is essential to break through resistance and settle for a definite rally.
Ripple has achieved remarkable results, including the conclusion of its lawsuit with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), President Donald Trump's proposal to include virtual assets in strategic reserves, and cooperation with a major South Korean insurance company. The company is valued at $50 billion, more than double the market capitalization of stablecoin issuer Circle. Funds have been steadily flowing into the XRP spot ETF launched last November, but this has not translated into a substantial price rebound.
Some market observers are pessimistic about XRP's recovery. Ric Edelman, founder of Edelman Financial Engines, analyzed that it would be difficult for XRP to regain its past glory in the current market environment. Participants in the prediction market Polymarket also show a conservative attitude, giving a low 13% chance of XRP reaching $3.60 by the end of the year, while assigning a high 61% chance of it falling to $1.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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