Solana Plunges 33%, Yet Forecasted to Reach $125... Is Now a Reversal Point?

▲ Solana (SOL)/ChatGPT Generated Image ©

Solana has shown the weakest performance among major coins this year, plummeting 33%, but Western Union's choice of its stablecoin has ignited a spark for a potential turnaround.

According to the investment media TradingNews on April 30 (local time), Solana (SOL) traded around $83.11, confined within an intraday range of $81.57 to $83.95. Its market capitalization stands at $47.96 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $3.51 billion. Its year-to-date return is -33%. Unlike Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which surged 14% and 10% respectively in April's rebound, Solana only recovered 2.8%, marking the worst performance among the top 5 cryptocurrencies.

The biggest positive news is Western Union's decision to issue its own dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDPT, on the Solana network. Western Union, a payment infrastructure company operating remittance networks in over 200 countries and regions worldwide, chose Solana, which is interpreted as a signal that Solana's low fees and fast transaction processing capabilities can be effective for enterprise payment networks. Additionally, the cumulative inflow into Solana spot ETFs exceeded $1 billion, and Squads secured an $18 million investment led by Solana Ventures and Coinbase Ventures, further supporting the trend of institutional adoption.

However, there are also clear pressures weighing on the price. Brent crude exceeding $100 per barrel and the March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising from 2.8% in February to 3.5% have increased concerns about prolonged high interest rates. The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.50-3.75%, and in this environment, investment capital has shown a strong tendency to remain in large assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum rather than altcoins. Solana's relative underperformance is notable even when compared to XRP (Ripple), BNB, and Hyperliquid (HYPE).

On-chain indicators are also still weak. Solana's trading volume has decreased for 9 consecutive weeks, falling 32% from its recent high of 959 million transactions recorded on the weekend of February 8. Solana's trading volume on centralized exchanges last week was approximately $22 billion, only half of what it was during the bull market between April and September 2025. Furthermore, the movement of over 300,000 SOL from large wallets to centralized exchanges has intensified concerns about selling pressure.

Technically, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo baseline at $84.56 is the first turning point. If Solana recovers this price on a closing basis, $86.50 becomes the next target, followed by the key question of breaking through the $88-$90 resistance level. Surpassing $90 would set $100 and the 3-month forecast of $125.69 as the next targets. Conversely, a fall below $80 could push it down to $77, $75, and $70, with warnings that a bearish scenario could extend to the $50-$55 range.

The media believes that Solana is likely to explore direction within the $77-$90 range in the short term. However, considering Western Union's adoption of USDPT, the cumulative $1 billion inflow into Solana spot ETFs, a weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) buy signal, and the possibility of an Elliott Wave 3, there remains potential for recovery to the $100-$150 range in the medium term. The key variable is the macroeconomic environment. If falling oil prices, dovish signals from the Fed, and altcoin fund rotation align, Solana could transform its current sluggish sideways movement into a springboard for a strong rebound.

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