XRP, Investor Sentiment Recovers to a 2-Year High... May's Historical Average Return of 25% on the Verge of Being Replicated

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XRP recorded its highest level of bullish sentiment in two years, driven by the positive news of its integration with Rakuten, Japan's largest e-commerce company.

On April 30 (local time), according to crypto media outlet BeInCrypto, on-chain data analytics firm Santiment analyzed that investors' positive social sentiment index for XRP reached its second-highest level in the past two years. The main driver behind this surge was Rakuten Wallet, the virtual asset exchange of Japan's Rakuten Group, which listed XRP on April 15. This move opened the way for 44 million users in Japan to convert over 3 trillion Rakuten points, worth approximately $23 billion, into XRP.

Santiment diagnosed that XRP is receiving intense attention on social media due to the news of its new integration with Rakuten. As of April 29, the ratio of positive to negative comments for XRP reached 3.9, indicating a deep entry into the FOMO zone, signifying an overheated market. However, Santiment explained, "From a price perspective, such events rarely lead to immediate large-scale surges," and "bullish outcomes usually appear after the initial euphoria and FOMO subside." Indeed, after a FOMO surge on March 19, the XRP price experienced a slight downward correction.

XRP investors have been anticipating a turnaround, having watched its market cap decline by approximately 55% over the past nine months. With the increasing likelihood of April's closing price ending in an uptrend, it is expected to break the chain of six consecutive months of decline. This marks an exit from a slump period equivalent to the longest monthly decline recorded since early 2014. According to data from analytics firm CryptoRank, this rebound signals a significant change in the nine-month-long prolonged downturn.

However, historical statistics for May send mixed signals. While the average return for May in the past has been around 25%, excluding the exceptional surge in 2017, the median value actually records a negative 2.6%. Indeed, seven out of the last twelve Mays have closed with a decline, statistically indicating a higher probability of bearish or sideways movement. Experts advise that key integration news with large corporations can be a long-term driver for prices, but caution should be exercised regarding short-term volatility.

The overall cryptocurrency market trend is also a key variable that will determine XRP's future performance. While market sentiment has partially improved with the recent easing of geopolitical tensions, uncertainties surrounding the macroeconomic environment still remain. The market is closely watching the ripple effects of actual adoption cases that will emerge after the short-term overheating subsides.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*