Bitcoin, Optimism Explodes for Breaking $90,000... What's the Real Chance of a Surge?

▲ Gold, Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image

Optimism that Bitcoin (BTC) price will surpass $90,000 is dominating social media. However, considering past instances where public predictions were wrong, an analysis suggests that it could instead be a precursor to a price correction due to market overheating.

According to NewsBTC, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on April 30 (local time), on-chain analytics firm Santiment announced that the social mention metric, which measures the volume of Bitcoin-related mentions on social media platforms, has recently surged. Santiment analyzed posts mentioning specific price ranges on major social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and Reddit to ascertain the current sentiment of investors.

According to the analysis, immediately after negative forecasts predicting Bitcoin's price to fall between $50,000 and $59,000 poured in early April, the price rebounded, surpassing $79,000. This contrarian trend, where the market rebounds when public pessimism is at its peak, has been proven by data. Santiment explained that the cryptocurrency market tends to move in the opposite direction of the majority's expectations.

Currently, the situation has completely reversed, with optimism expecting a price increase between $90,000 and $99,000 overwhelmingly dominating predictions of a drop below $60,000. The ratio of positive to negative sentiment for Bitcoin is currently 1.38 to 1. This means that for every negative post, 1.38 positive opinions are posted, indicating a pervasive optimistic atmosphere among investors.

In the case of Solana (SOL), even stronger optimism has formed than for Bitcoin, with positive mentions approximately three times more frequent than negative opinions. Santiment emphasized, "Coin price predictions are the best way to understand the opposite direction the price will move." This data suggests that the FOMO phenomenon, driven by individual investors, is forming a short-term market top.

Although Bitcoin's price has fallen somewhat from its recent high, the expectation of it breaking $90,000 on social media remains undiminished. Santiment warned that when the crowd is most confident, the market can move in unexpected directions. The current excessive optimism is more likely to act as a signal for profit-taking rather than a driving force for further gains.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*