Bitcoin, heading to $100,000 after a $75,000 correction?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image ©

Signs are becoming clear that the slowdown in Bitcoin's upward momentum is due to a simultaneous outflow of leveraged funds and macroeconomic pressure.

According to investment media TradingNews on April 29 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways around $76,600, remaining about 6% below its all-time high. While it rose 0.46% in 24 hours, 12.49% in 30 days, and 17.49% in 60 days, the actual market internally shows a mixed trend of structural strength and short-term vulnerability.

In particular, the funding rate, a key indicator of open interest in the derivatives market, plummeted to an annualized 3%, its lowest level in a year, which is identified as a decisive signal. This implies that leveraged buying has virtually disappeared, and spot buying and Bitcoin spot ETF funds are supporting the price. In fact, cumulative inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs in April reached $2.43 billion, but during the same period, the price actually fell from $79,000 to $76,000, revealing a discrepancy between institutional demand and short-term price movements.

Technically, $76,900 has been presented as a key turning point for short-term direction. If the $78,300-$78,500 range is reclaimed with volume, it opens up the possibility of breaking $79,300 and extending to $80,100. However, if this support level is broken, an analysis suggests it could quickly fall through the $75,800-$76,200 range to $75,000. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered an overheated zone, indicating signs of short-term fatigue.

The macroeconomic environment is also a burden. Amid rising oil prices and persistent inflationary pressures, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have virtually receded. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.401%, and the 30-year yield is on the verge of breaking 5%. If long-term interest rates materialize, a general readjustment of risk assets will be inevitable, and Bitcoin is no exception.

However, the structural foundation remains solid. Long-term holdings of over one year account for 70% of the total supply, and decreasing exchange reserves coupled with continuous inflows from institutional investors are lowering supply pressure. Investors sensitive to macro variables have already left the market, while remaining investors show a tendency to buy on dips, and volatility has significantly decreased from 4.5% in 2021-2022 to around 1.6% in 2025.

In conclusion, in the short term, the defense of $76,900 is a key variable, and structurally, institutional fund inflows and supply contraction are maintaining the medium-to-long-term upward trend. However, a break above $80,000 may be limited unless leveraged participation resumes, and a correction to the $75,000 range is interpreted as a buying opportunity for long-term investors.

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