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Dear investors, this is Seo Jin-hyuk, an economic market analyst. On April 4, 2026, the global financial market is experiencing extreme volatility, facing a double whammy of better-than-expected US employment figures and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The cryptocurrency market, in particular, recorded its worst performance in Q1, leading to a sharp debate over whether it has entered a bottoming-out phase or is on the verge of a further crash.
Where is the market looking now? Data and figures clearly show that the current market is suffering from a triple whammy: retreating interest rate cut expectations, concerns about liquidity contraction, and weakening risk appetite. Major cryptocurrencies are struggling, and investor sentiment remains in the 'extreme fear' stage. These complex factors make it difficult to predict the market's short-term direction.
| Indicator | Current Value | 24h Change | 7d Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $66940.0 | +0.07% | +1.45% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2053.34 | -0.21% | +3.49% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $1.32 | -0.08% | -0.43% |
| Solana (SOL) | $80.37 | +1.81% | -2.82% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.091548 | +1.28% | +1.75% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 11 (Extreme Fear) | Yesterday 9 (Extreme Fear) | - |
| NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) | $584.98 | +0.11% | - |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| VIX Fear Index | 33.53 | - | - |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 4.31% | - | - |
| BTC Funding Rate | 0.000038 | +0.00% | - |
| ETH Funding Rate | -0.000000 | -0.00% | - |
Recently released US non-farm payrolls for March increased by 178,000, significantly exceeding market expectations of 65,000. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%, below the expected 4.4%, reaffirming a robust job market.
This strong employment data is fueling market concerns that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will further delay the timing of interest rate cuts. The US 10-year Treasury yield remains high at 4.31%, acting as a major factor in dampening investor sentiment towards risk assets.
Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are having a critical negative impact on global liquidity and risk appetite. Former President Trump's hawkish remarks and the deepening conflict with Iran are raising concerns about surging oil prices, with shocking warnings even suggesting that Bitcoin could plummet to the $10,000 level in the worst-case scenario.
Bitcoin plunged 22.2% in Q1, recording its worst quarterly performance since the 2018 bear market. This suggests that Bitcoin is still revealing its true colors as a risk asset sensitive to the macroeconomic environment.
In particular, the outflow of funds from institutional investors is placing a significant burden on the Bitcoin market. JPMorgan analyzed that digital asset market inflows in Q1 this year amounted to $11.0 billion, only about one-third of the previous year's corresponding period, noting that this was primarily concentrated in corporate BTC purchases and VC investments, while retail and institutional investor funds were negligible or recorded net outflows.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin retail investor inflows to major exchanges hit a 9-year low, with small-scale investment activity almost disappearing. This suggests a potential centralization of Bitcoin ownership, and some analyses indicate that the introduction of spot ETFs is accelerating this trend.
However, Strategy (STRC) is estimated to have purchased approximately 4535.58 BTC ($741 million) over four trading days, which is about 2.5 times the amount newly mined. Michael Saylor also mentioned "Good Friday to buy Bitcoin," showing a continuous buying trend for Bitcoin. This indicates that institutional buying interest has not completely waned.
Meanwhile, discussions about the threat of quantum computers continue. Google's Quantum AI team analyzed that Bitcoin could be vulnerable to quantum computing attacks sooner than expected, but Blockstream has implemented transaction signatures to counter quantum computing threats, and Samson Mow argues that Bitcoin can overcome quantum computer threats. This demonstrates ongoing efforts to address security threats through the continuous advancement of Bitcoin technology.
Ethereum (ETH) is barely holding above the $2,000 mark, but it's facing downward pressure due to net outflows from spot ETFs for two consecutive trading days. A sharp increase in open interest was immediately followed by a nearly 5% price drop, leading to large-scale forced liquidations. This suggests that Ethereum could be exposed to significant short-term volatility.
Solana (SOL) is showing a trend where, despite institutional capital inflows, selling volume moving to exchanges is increasing, preventing it from gaining price momentum. With the $80 level broken and warnings of a further drop to $60, concerns are also emerging that a recent major DeFi hacking incident, which unlocked $211 million worth of assets, could intensify selling pressure.
Ripple (XRP) has seen its liquidity index on Binance plummet to an all-time low, flashing a red light warning of a significant price crash. After a 30% plunge over three months, maintaining the $1.3 level is in critical condition. However, there is also positive news for Ripple's entry into traditional finance, such as joining SWIFT as an official partner and Ripple Prime obtaining a BBB credit rating. Furthermore, the passage of the US Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act (CLARITY Act) appears to be a key variable that will determine XRP's fate.
Meanwhile, in the Binance USDT-M futures market, EDGEUSDT showed the highest volatility, rising by +45.17% in 24 hours. ONGUSDT (+44.29%) and DUSDT (+42.09%) also recorded significant gains, demonstrating that speculative demand for certain altcoins still exists. However, such sharp increases are accompanied by high volatility, requiring a cautious approach.
The current market's Fear & Greed Index stands at 11, remaining in the 'Extreme Fear' stage. This is similar to the previous day's 9, indicating that investor anxiety has reached its peak.
Historically, periods of extreme fear have often presented contrarian buying opportunities, but the current market is surrounded by a complex array of negative factors, including interest rates, liquidity, and geopolitical risks. While some analyses suggest that the market has entered a full-fledged bottoming-out phase, with Bitcoin's supply in profit/loss approaching 2022 bear market levels, warnings of further downside also persist.
Looking at the long/short ratio relative to BTC open interest, short positions dominate across all exchanges, with long positions at 48.85% and short positions at 51.15%. This suggests that short-term downward pressure may intensify. Specifically, there is a concentration of put option purchases betting on a decline at the $62,000 level, leading to analyses that if this support level is breached, the rate of decline could accelerate.
As strong US employment figures and geopolitical risks from the Middle East push back interest rate cut expectations and dampen risk appetite, the cryptocurrency market stands at a crossroads between bottoming out and further declines amidst extreme fear.
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