to leave a comment.
On April 1, 2026, the global financial market continues to face a complex equation involving geopolitical risks from the Middle East, persistent inflation concerns, and the resulting high-interest rate environment. Amidst this uncertainty, the cryptocurrency market, despite an extreme fear index, is capturing investors' attention by showing signs of a rebound in some assets.
Where is the market looking now? Through the sharp analysis of macro strategist Seo Jin-hyuk, a Wall Street veteran, we aim to clearly diagnose the market's direction with data and figures. Currently, the market is showing chaotic movements due to risk-on sentiment, liquidity, and expectations of interest rate cuts.
| Indicator | Current Value | 24h Change | 7d Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $68231.0 | +2.30% | -2.98% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2104.88 | +4.00% | -1.92% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $1.34 | +1.32% | -5.02% |
| Solana (SOL) | $83.08 | +0.78% | -7.98% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.092212 | +1.68% | -2.55% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 8 (Extreme Fear) | ||
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | $577.18 | +3.39% | N/A |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| VIX Fear Index | 34.35 | ||
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 4.35% | ||
| Dollar Index | 120.8851 | ||
| BTC Funding Rate | -0.000034 | -0.00% | |
| ETH Funding Rate | -0.000003 | -0.00% |
Currently, the market is seeing a recovery in risk-asset preference sentiment due to expectations of geopolitical tension alleviation in the Middle East. Former President Trump's statement "will be leaving Iran very soon" and the Iranian President's message "willing to end the war if security is guaranteed" are believed to have somewhat eased investors' anxiety. This trend led to a record rally in the US stock market, with the Nasdaq Composite Index surging +3.83%.
However, the movements of interest rates and the dollar continue to send mixed signals. The US 10-year Treasury yield remains high at 4.35%, and the Dollar Index recorded 120.8851, showing strength. This suggests that inflation concerns persist, and caution regarding the Fed's monetary policy shift is maintained. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of an interest rate freeze in April is overwhelmingly high at 98.4%.
The fact that the VIX Fear Index remains high at 34.35 indicates that the market's underlying anxiety has not been completely resolved. While expectations of Middle East risk alleviation led to a short-term rally, the high-interest rate environment and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to be major market variables. In particular, the US Secretary of Defense's remark that "the next few days will be critical" emphasizes the need to closely monitor future developments.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $68231.0, up +2.30% in 24 hours, but down -2.98% over 7 days. The Fear & Greed Index, a sentiment indicator, is at 8, remaining in the 'Extreme Fear' stage. This shows that the market is generally depressed, but paradoxically, such extreme fear is often interpreted as a bottom signal.
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $1.2 billion in March, and a net inflow of $69.59 million was recorded on the 30th (local time), demonstrating sustained interest from institutional investors. However, the fact that Bitcoin's funding rate is close to negative -0.00% indicates that short positions are dominant in the futures market, which also implies the possibility of a potential short squeeze. On-chain data analyzes that long-term Bitcoin holders are taking stop losses, suggesting that based on past cases, selling pressure may decrease, and a bottom could be formed.
Meanwhile, concerns about Google's quantum computing technology advancements and Bitcoin's security vulnerabilities have resurfaced. Starkware co-founder emphasized that Bitcoin needs to find a solution immediately, and Bitcoin developers are working on BIP development to counter quantum computing threats. Elon Musk's remark, "If quantum computers can break Bitcoin's security, on the positive side, you could recover your wallet password even if you forgot it," is somewhat controversial but shows increasing interest in quantum security.
Ethereum (ETH) rose +4.00% in 24 hours to $2104.88, but fell -1.92% over 7 days. After 8 consecutive trading days of net outflows, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $4.83 million on the 30th (local time), showing signs of a rebound. However, news that $265.8 million evaporated from institutional funds still raises concerns about Ethereum's defense of the $2,000 support level.
Ripple (XRP) rose +1.32% in 24 hours to $1.34 but fell -5.02% over 7 days, recording the worst performance among major altcoins. XRP is showing a 'precarious' struggle to maintain the $1.3 support level, and news of a mass exodus of institutional and individual investors is also circulating. While there is positive news such as Franklin Templeton mentioning XRP after Bitcoin and Ethereum, and Google mentioning the XRP Ledger's potential to defend against quantum threats, ongoing regulatory uncertainties, such as difficulties in passing the 'Clarity Act,' are hindering XRP's progress.
Solana (SOL) saw a slight increase of +0.78% in 24 hours but showed the largest decline of -7.98% over 7 days. Solana has been on a continuous downtrend for 6 consecutive months, with the $80 support level even shaking, indicating persistent bearishness. Prominent analysts warn that Solana could fall further to $73, so investors need to exercise caution.
Dogecoin (DOGE) rose +1.68% in 24 hours but fell -2.55% over 7 days. Despite a 28% surge in weekly active addresses, the price remains stagnant. This is an example of how on-chain activity does not necessarily lead to short-term price increases.
In the Binance USDT-M futures market, KERNEL, STO, NOM, and others recorded high gains of over 20%, indicating that short-term speculative buying is flowing into some altcoins. KERNEL, in particular, recorded a 24-hour change of +35.11%, and STO recorded +33.28%, showing active market movements.
The current Fear & Greed Index for the market is 8, indicating the 'Extreme Fear' stage. This is a further drop from 11 the previous day, confirming that investor sentiment is at its worst. Historically, such extreme fear periods often signal a market bottom. However, macroeconomic pressures such as geopolitical risks in the Middle East, high interest rates, and regulatory uncertainties are preventing investor sentiment from easily recovering.
The accumulation movements of Bitcoin whales and stop-losses by long-term holders technically suggest a reduction in selling pressure and the possibility of a bottom formation. However, whether these positive signals signify a 'true bottom' will require more time to observe. Market participants are still grappling with finding a clear answer to 'where the market is looking now.'
Today's market is a complex situation where Nasdaq and major cryptocurrencies succeeded in a short-term rebound due to expectations of Middle East risk alleviation, but still high interest rates, a strong dollar, and 'extreme fear' investor sentiment are intertwined. As long as geopolitical uncertainties and regulatory risks are not resolved, the market is expected to continue with short-term volatility, seeking direction. Now is the time for a cautious approach based on data and figures rather than emotional judgments.
Today's market in a nutshell: Short-term rebound amid expectations of Middle East risk alleviation, but high interest rates and fear sentiment remain the market's dilemma.
to leave a comment.